National Weather Service Raw Text Product

714 
FXUS61 KCLE 271809
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
109 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MARYLAND WILL MOVE INTO MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE INTO OHIO FOR THURSDAY THEN 
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE EAST 
INTO LAKE ERIE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE 
PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY JUST NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS GOING ON AT THE MOMENT. THE
ACTIVITY IN THE KCLE AREA IS BRIEFLY DROPPING VSBYS TO LESS THAN A
MILE BUT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE AS THE FLOW BECOME MORE NW. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. LOT'S OF DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO WORK IN LATER TODAY SO MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME BIGGER
CHANGES IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.  HAVE TWEEKED TEMPS DOWN A TAD. 

ORIGINAL...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE 
CWA THRU MID MORNING ALLOWING ANY REMAINING SYNOPTIC SNOW TO SHIFT 
OFF TO THE EAST. INITIAL LAKE ENHANCED BANDS STARTING TO DEVELOP.

850 MB TEMPS STEADILY DROP AND BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 
MINUS 14. A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SHSN WILL BE TAKING PLACE. 
INITIALLY A NNW MEAN FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE A MULTI BAND SETUP WITH 
SHSN EXTENDING BACK INTO THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT AROUND CLE AND INTO 
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CLE METRO AREA. BY THE END OF THE DAY MEAN 
LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO NW AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE DEFINED 
HURON FETCH INTO THE EAST HALF OF THE SNOWBELT.

HEADLINES WILL BE LEFT AS IS FOR NOW...BUT EXTENDED UNTIL 4 AM THU 
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. EVENTUALLY SOME OF THE CO'S 
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE CANCELLED FROM WEST TO EAST BUT THAT SHOULD 
NOT BE NEEDED UNTIL SOMETIME THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE ENHANCED SHSN SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE EAST PART OF THE 
SNOWBELT TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN THU AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE 
MAINLY DUE TO WINDS BACKING TO THE WSW. ANOTHER S/W DROPPING INTO 
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A WEAK SURFACE 
LOW THAT WORKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKES THU INTO 
THU NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SHOULD 
MOSTLY AFFECT THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. ACCUMULATION THU INTO THU 
NIGHT SHOULD RUN AN INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE MAY OCCUR IN 
THE SNOWBELT DUE TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE SNOWBELT ON FRI TO SEE SOME FLURRIES 
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. FOR FRI NIGHT...THE SHSN AND FLURRIES SHOULD 
BE DONE OR WILL END BY MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEARLY ZONAL AGAIN AND IT APPEARS WE ARE 
TRENDING BACK TOWARD THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE SEEN 
OVER THE PAST MONTH. ALTHOUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO 
SWING THROUGH SUNDAY AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. 
HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND DIGS 
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. ANOTHER 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ON 
MONDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. WE 
COULD SEE SOME EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE 
TRACK WILL BE MUCH FURTHER OUT TO SEA THAN THE CURRENT STORM. THIS 
MAKES ME WONDER IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE A VERY ACTIVE WINTER SEASON 
ALONG THE EAST COAST RESULTING IN THESE SHORT COLD AIR OUTBREAKS 
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING AS 
IS ALREADY ADVERTISED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND MAKE SOME MINOR 
ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE. KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW 
PEGS AS LATEST MODELS HINTING AT SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR MOVING 
INTO THE REGION THAN EARLIER PROGS INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT
CAK/YNG BEFORE ENDING AROUND 20Z. THE ONLY SITE STILL UNDER A
THREAT FOR MEANINGFUL SNOW IS ERI WHERE LAKE EFFECT WILL RAMP UP
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY 02-12Z. MODELS DEPICT A FAIRLY NARROW BUT HEAVY
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETTING UP FROM LAKE HURON. AREAS WITHIN
THIS BAND WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE
BAND WILL LIKELY BE VFR. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS BAND
WILL IMPACT ERI OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY
WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN NE OHIO/NW PA POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR RETURNING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT THIS 
TIME AND THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE WAVES TO BUILD RATHER QUICKLY ON 
THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ARE 
FLYING AND WILL BE STARTED AT VARIOUS TIMES FROM WEST TO EAST ON THE 
LAKE TODAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO 
SUBSIDE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. WEEKEND IS LOOKING FAIRLY GOOD AS WINDS 
REMAIN LOW AND NOT EXPECTING ANY HEADLINES AS WAVES REMAIN 3 FEET OR 
LESS. 

WATER TEMPERATURES GETTING DOWN INTO THE 30S NOW IN THE WESTERN 
BASIN SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ICE START 
TO DEVELOP IN THE PROTECTED WATERWAYS IN THE WESTERN BASIN OVER THE 
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ014-
     089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY