296 
FXUS63 KEAX 222310
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
510 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 317 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

The main focus in the short term will be cold temperatures over the 
next several days, particularly on Saturday as a polar airmass makes 
a southward dive across the region. Scattered cloud cover should 
help hold lows in upper teens and 20s across the southern half of 
the forecast area tonight; however, temperatures may tank into the 
lower teens across the north where clouds will gradually clear. 
Winds may briefly die down around midnight as a weak, subtle surface 
ridge passes over, but will begin to pick up again by sunrise, 
allowing wind chill values to fall into the 5 to 15 degree range by 
sunrise on Saturday.

For Saturday, breezy north winds and associated cold-air advection 
will hold temperatures in the 20s over much of the region, with the 
exception of the far southern CWA where cold air will be just a bit 
slower to arrive. Quickly falling temperatures in the evening will 
combine with sustained north winds between 10 to 20 mph to result in 
single digit wind chills during the evening hours, and although wind 
will decrease overnight, temperatures will also fall into the single 
digits to lower teens, keeping wind chills between 0 and 5 degrees 
through the remainder of the night.

Temperatures will attempt to warm into the upper 20s to lower 30s on 
Sunday as southerly surface winds return on the back side of the 
departing high pressure, but will still remain well below normal. 
Extensive dry air will keep precipitation chances low throughout the 
short term forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

A persistent and cold pattern is expected through much of the mid and 
long range forecast. A series of upper troughs will dive from 
central Saskatchewan into the Great Lakes. This will result in 
persistent northwesterly to westerly flow aloft over the forecast 
area. Several polar air intrusions are expected to move through the 
central and eastern CONUS. Temperatures in the forecast area are 
expected to be 10-15 degrees below normal Monday through late next 
work week. One of the coldest periods is expected midweek, with a 
cold surface high pressure settling into the region, with highs in 
the lower to middle 30s and lows in the teens to lower 20s. While 
some moistening will occur as a surface high shifts east in advance 
of the next cold front, overall period looks dry with no notable 
weather systems expected to impact the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 510 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

VFR conditions are expected through the entire forecast as deeper, drier
air continues to build into the region from the north. Despite the
absence of lower clouds, a steady stream of mid to upper level
moisture should keep things cloudy with high level clouds. Winds will
be persistent from the north, increasing some tomorrow morning and
becoming gusty. Winds should diminish very late in the valid period
as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...CDB