AFOS product AFDTFX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTFX
Product Timestamp: 2013-11-22 17:36 UTC

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692 
FXUS65 KTFX 221736
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1036 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2013

.UPDATE...
Raised temperatures a few degrees across the higher plains for
this afternoon were sunny skies and lack of snow cover should
allow temps to reach the middle and upper 30s. Cold air will
remain trapped in the Helena Valley and have dropped highs into
the mid 20s for this area. Much colder air and low clouds were
approaching the US/Canadian Border but model guidance keeps the cold
air mainly north of the CWA this afternoon. Will keep colder
afternoon temperatures in northern Blaine and Hill Counties but
some concern the models may be underestimating how far south the
front will get by late this afternoon. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1400Z.
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. 
Winds will remain breezy into the morning along the Rocky Mountain 
Front. A weak disturbance will bring increasing clouds to North 
Central Montana near KHVR Friday, but no precipitation is expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2013/
Today through Sunday Evening...Pleasant late-autumn conditions are 
on tap for this weekend. Broad upper-level trof presently extending 
from the Great Lakes region back to central MT will continue to 
slowly exit eastward.  Expect mostly fair skies across our region 
today, though portions of Hill/Blaine/Fergus Counties will see 
increased cloud cover, but no precipitation, from a weak disturbance 
moving along the trof's western boundary. The cold airmass ushered 
in by the trof will persist for one more day as high temperatures 
only reach the upper 20s to mid 30s this afternoon. Extended period 
of dry conditions begins tomorrow as a well-amplified high pressure 
ridge along the Pacific Coast steadily builds into the Northern 
Rockies and Southwest Canada.  The current northwest flow pattern 
aloft will gradually shift to more westerly by Sunday as the ridge 
expands across eastern MT and the Dakotas.  This change in flow will 
allow high temperatures to return to near- to slightly above-normal 
values (low to mid 40s) on Sat & Sun.    
Waranauskas

Sunday Night through Saturday...Long term models and ensembles in 
very good agreement that high pressure will continue to hold over 
the region into at least Thursday. Expect mostly dry conditions with 
generally light winds and partly cloudy skies during this time. A 
weak cut off low pressure system, that largely looks to move south 
of Montana Friday, may bring a slight chance of light precipitation 
to Central Montana for the end of the week. Overall it looks like a 
quiet week of weather ahead. Temperatures look to remain fairly 
seasonal with highs generally around the 40s and lows in the 20s. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  16  43  22 /   0   0   0   0 
CTB  33   9  40  19 /   0   0   0   0 
HLN  27  14  36  20 /   0   0   0   0 
BZN  30   8  36  14 /   0   0   0   0 
WEY  26   4  35   9 /   0   0   0   0 
DLN  33  13  39  19 /   0   0   0   0 
HVR  27   7  29  13 /  10   0   0   0 
LWT  33  13  45  21 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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