National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTFX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDTFX
Product Timestamp: 2013-11-22 17:36 UTC
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692 FXUS65 KTFX 221736 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 1036 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2013 .UPDATE... Raised temperatures a few degrees across the higher plains for this afternoon were sunny skies and lack of snow cover should allow temps to reach the middle and upper 30s. Cold air will remain trapped in the Helena Valley and have dropped highs into the mid 20s for this area. Much colder air and low clouds were approaching the US/Canadian Border but model guidance keeps the cold air mainly north of the CWA this afternoon. Will keep colder afternoon temperatures in northern Blaine and Hill Counties but some concern the models may be underestimating how far south the front will get by late this afternoon. Langlieb && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1400Z. VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain breezy into the morning along the Rocky Mountain Front. A weak disturbance will bring increasing clouds to North Central Montana near KHVR Friday, but no precipitation is expected. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2013/ Today through Sunday Evening...Pleasant late-autumn conditions are on tap for this weekend. Broad upper-level trof presently extending from the Great Lakes region back to central MT will continue to slowly exit eastward. Expect mostly fair skies across our region today, though portions of Hill/Blaine/Fergus Counties will see increased cloud cover, but no precipitation, from a weak disturbance moving along the trof's western boundary. The cold airmass ushered in by the trof will persist for one more day as high temperatures only reach the upper 20s to mid 30s this afternoon. Extended period of dry conditions begins tomorrow as a well-amplified high pressure ridge along the Pacific Coast steadily builds into the Northern Rockies and Southwest Canada. The current northwest flow pattern aloft will gradually shift to more westerly by Sunday as the ridge expands across eastern MT and the Dakotas. This change in flow will allow high temperatures to return to near- to slightly above-normal values (low to mid 40s) on Sat & Sun. Waranauskas Sunday Night through Saturday...Long term models and ensembles in very good agreement that high pressure will continue to hold over the region into at least Thursday. Expect mostly dry conditions with generally light winds and partly cloudy skies during this time. A weak cut off low pressure system, that largely looks to move south of Montana Friday, may bring a slight chance of light precipitation to Central Montana for the end of the week. Overall it looks like a quiet week of weather ahead. Temperatures look to remain fairly seasonal with highs generally around the 40s and lows in the 20s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 36 16 43 22 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 33 9 40 19 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 27 14 36 20 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 30 8 36 14 / 0 0 0 0 WEY 26 4 35 9 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 33 13 39 19 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 27 7 29 13 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 33 13 45 21 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov