068 
FXUS64 KHUN 151610 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1010 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE AMENDING THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. A CONSISTENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ALONG A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY PVA FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE UPPED PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FORECAST AREA WIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
TEMPS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE NOT MADE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO QPF NUMBERS. THE MODELS
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING. 

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 536 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CENTER OF SFC HIGH IS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND 
EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM. MEANWHILE A 5H TROF OVER
ERN KS/OK WAS PRODUCING A BAND OF SHRA NOW MOVING ACROSS THE MS
RIVER. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST...THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO NRN AL (DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF
SUBSIDENCE/HIGH PRESSURE). AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH VCSH WORDING IN
TAFS FOR NOW. THE UPPER TROF SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TN VALLEY BY 00Z
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL END THE CHC OF SHRA AT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 00Z. AFTER 00Z MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$ 

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AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.