291 
FXUS62 KMLB 100827
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
...LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL WILL BRING A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK 
TO AREA BEACHES...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH THIS TIME. 
LIGHT EARLY MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS 
INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 10 MPH ALONG THE 
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. MAINLY 
DRY CONDITIONS BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR 
SPRINKLE SOUTH OF MELBOURNE WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED. 

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST AND LOWER 
80S INTO THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO 
LOWER 60S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 60S SOUTHWARD FROM 
HERE OVER THE INTERIOR AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AND PERHAPS 70 
DEGREES ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

MON-TUE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL TRANSITION OFF THE
MID ATLC SEABOARD WITH A TEMPORARY RESPITE IN WINDS/SEAS CONTINUING
FROM THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHC REMAINS BARELY MENTIONABLE OVER THE
MARINE AREA AND SOUTH COAST WITH SMALL POSSIBILITY OF AN ONSHORE
MOVING LOW-TOPPED SHOWER.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLDER AIR OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS BY WED AS A LARGE CENTER OF POLAR HIGH PRESSURE NR
1047MB MOVES SWD INTO THE CENTRAL US. 

A SWD SURGE OF STRONGER N/NE WINDS WL OCCUR AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN ATLC AND FL PENINSULA DURING WED.
COOLER AND BLUSTERY CONDS WED AND INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. 

SCT RAIN CHCS WL MAINLY BE ALONG THE COAST AND ATLC WATERS WHERE
BEST LL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE EXISTS. HIGHS 60S TO LOWER 70S
WED FOLLOWED BY LWR TO MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG IMMEDIATE
COAST WED NIGHT WITH CONTINUATION OF BREEZY/WINDY AND SOMEWHAT MILDER
TEMP RANGE THU-FRI WITH TENDENCY TOWARD MORE DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW.
SOME LOW TOPPED MARINE SHOWERS PSBL IN A DEEP FETCH OF EASTERLIES
THAT LOOK TO PERSIST TO AT LEAST SATURDAY. FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT WEEKEND IS UNCERTAIN WITH GFS SOLELY INDICATING SOME HEIGHT
FALLS SOUTH OF THE STATE AND A DEVELOPING RAIN CHC FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. AN ISOLD -SHRA RISK MAINLY FROM KVRB-KSUA WITH
LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS AT THE COAST. PERIODIC MARINE
STRATOCU ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 
SEAS UNTIL 12Z (7AM) FOR OFFSHORE LEGS SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD 
COUNTY LINE AS WELL AS FOR NEAR SHORE LEG SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. 
WILL GO WITH CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NO HEADLINES OR 
CAUTION WORDING FOR NEAR SHORE LEG NORTH OF VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY 
LINE. ENE/E FLOW BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS 6-7 FT WHERE ADVISORY EXISTS AND 
4-6 FT WHERE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS EXIST EXCEPT 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE 
NORTH LEG. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEXT EVENT TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WED WITH
RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. GALE CONDS PSBL OVER A PORTION
OF THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WITH ADVISORY CONDS LINGERING AT
LEAST INTO THU.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  62  80  63 /  10  10  10  10 
MCO  82  62  83  63 /  10  10  10  10 
MLB  80  67  81  68 /  10  10  20  10 
VRB  82  68  82  68 /  20  20  20  20 
LEE  81  62  82  62 /  10  10  10  10 
SFB  81  63  82  64 /  10  10  10  10 
ORL  82  64  83  65 /  10  10  10  10 
FPR  80  67  81  68 /  20  20  20  20 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS 
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER 
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER 
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD 
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST