690 
FXUS63 KMPX 062148
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013

MOST INTERESTING THING WITH THE WEATHER TO MONITOR TODAY IS THE 
SHRINKING OF THE SNOWPACK LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS SNOW ON VISIBLE 
SATELLITE. AS WE GET INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT 
US THIS SNOW...WE ARE SEEING OUR FLOW ALOFT TURN NW. WITH THE NW 
FLOW COMES SOME WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS DROPPING 
SOME CLOUD COVER DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. OF MORE 
CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SE SODAK. THESE CLOUDS HAVE 
BEEN DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH THEM NOW MOVING OVER THE 
SNOWPACK...THE DECREASED MIXING THERE WILL LIKELY MEAN WE DO NOT 
COMPLETELY LOSE THEM BEFORE THE SUNSETS...SO WILL PROBABLY HAVE THEM 
EXPAND IN ONE FASHION OR ANOTHER TONIGHT. THE HRRR MAY BE A LITTLE 
AGGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF 
SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT. HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE FOG POTENTIAL SOME TONIGHT 
AS MODELS SHOW ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT REMAINING TONIGHT TO KEEP WINDS 
UP AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL BUT CENTRAL MN...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS 
MORE OF A STRATUS THAN A FOG CONCERN. ONLY LEFT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER 
THE SW CWA...MORE OR LESS WHERE THE DEEPER SNOWPACK EXISTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013

THERE ARE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ON 
FRIDAY WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE SECOND WILL BE 
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT. 

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS 
SHOWED A TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. A SHORTWAVE WITHIN 
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY. H850 
THETA_E ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND 
TOGETHER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP 
PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS 
STRUGGLE TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT BASED ON THE FORCING 
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 
I-94.

THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE 
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING CHANCES FOR 
SNOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME ONLY HAVE CHANCE 
POPS...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSISTENCY...WITH POTENTIAL 
FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME IT MOVES OFF LATE THURSDAY. IF 
THIS TREND CONTINUES EXPECT THE POPS TO INCREASE ALONG WITH 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013

TWO ISSUES THIS TAF PERIOD REVOLVE AROUND 5K-7K FT CLOUDS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW MN AND REMNANT IFR CIGS OVER SE SODAK.
FLOW BETWEEN 5K AND 7K FT WILL BRING THOSE CLOUDS SE INTO THE MPX
AREA...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE WEST WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO SRN MN BY TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FAVOR THE IDEA OF THE
RAP...WHICH HAS THE BKN TO OVC 5K-7K FT CLOUDS WORKING ABOUT AS
FAR SW AS THE MN RIVER AND STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. SOUTH OF THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR
STRATUS TO FORM...WITH RWF HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING
THESE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SNOW COVER IN PLACE. SHOULD BE
MAINLY A STRATUS ISSUE TONIGHT...AS GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN 5 KT WNW WINDS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP DENSE
FOG FROM FORMING ANYWHERE IN THE MPX AREA.

KMSP...BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR TAF REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE FIELD THAT WILL BE HEADING THIS
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN QUESTION WITH THEM IS HOW LONG DO
THEY HANG AROUND. NAM INDICATES THAT ONCE THEY MOVE IN...THEY ARE
WITH US THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF. IF THAT HAPPENS...THEN
STRATUS/FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT. WITH THAT CLOUD
UNCERTAINTY...REMOVED THE MVFR VIS WE HAD GOING THU MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AND -RA. WINDS SE 15G25 KTS. 
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS. 
SUN...VFR. WINDS BCMG S 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG