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504 FXUS63 KTOP 031119 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 519 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2013 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 226 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 Leeside trough continues to deepen with tight pressure gradient across western and central Kansas. Concordia already has had sustained winds around 20 mph this morning...and winds will only increase from the south through the morning hours. The areal extent and timing of the current wind advisory still looks good...although some locations in north central Kansas may approach advisory criteria an hour or 2 before the start time of 11 am unless the high clouds to the west make it further east before noon than expected. Sustained winds across the northwest half of the cwa by noon should be 25-35 mph with gusts around 45 mph. Although winds will remain gusty at times through tonight...they should fall below advisory criteria by 6 pm. The high clouds will not help with temps today...but highs in the lower 60s look good. The mid high level moisture will increase tonight...mainly after midnight. As the nocturnal jet increases with the approach of a weak shortwave trough from the southwest...could still see some isolated high based showers develop over the northeast portions of the county warning area...although getting any rain through the dry layer beneath the mid level cloud deck and to the ground will not be easy. With more clouds and wind tonight...lows in the middle to upper 40s still look on track. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 226 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 On Monday an amplified upper level trough will dig southeast across NV and CA into the southwestern US by Tuesday morning. The upper level trough will move east across the central and southern plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. Monday, A minor upper level trough will lift northeast across eastern KS and NE during the morning hours. The low-levels look dry but ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough combined with WAA and isentropic lift may cause some elevated showers to develop around sunrise and push northeast across extreme northeast KS during the morning hours. Southerly winds ahead of weak surface cold front will allow highs to reach the lower 60s. Monday night, the southwesterly mid-level flow ahead of the H5 trough digging southeast across the southwestern US will cause a lee surface low to develop across northeast NM and southeast CO. southerly low-level winds will advect deeper gulf moisture northward across the state of KS through the night. The resulting isentropic lift combined with increasing ascent ahead of the H5 trough will allow scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across the CWA through the night from south to north. Overnight lows will only drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday, as the upper trough lifts northeast across the southern and central high plains, increasing ascent ahead of the upper trough will cause widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across eastern KS during the morning hours and continue into the afternoon hours. A cold front will move southeast across northwest KS through the day. Tuesday Night, the upper trough will move east across the central and southern plains and continue the occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms through the evening hours. The isolated thunderstorms chances will end as the surface cold front pushes east across the CWA during the night. At this time the colder 850mb air will lag behind the precip, therefore I don't think we will see a mix over to snow across the western CWA, since the precip will have moved east before the cold air moves in. Also, the upper trough will be filling and not amplifying, thus I do not see any type of TROWAL setting up on the west side of this upper trough. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 30s across north central KS with upper 30s to lower 40s across the remainder of the CWA. Wednesday, there may be a chance for a morning showers across the eastern CWA as the upper level trough axis shifts east of the area. Isentropic downglide on the west side of the trough should clear skies from west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. North winds and mostly cloud skies will only allow high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 40s. Wednesday Night through Saturday, the upper air pattern will become zonal with an upper level trough passing east across the northern plains on Friday. The stronger ascent should stay well north of the CWA. A weak cold front will move south across the CWA Friday Night. Highs will warm into the mid 50s on Thursday, with upper 50s to around 60 Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued at 455 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 A strong pressure gradient across the terminal sites this morning will allow for winds to steadily increase through 15z. The KMHK site will have the strongest sustained winds in the 15z/03 to 01Z/04 timeframe of 22-25kt with gusts near 33 kts. Winds at all sites will decrease aft 01z/04. Ceilings and vsbys will remain vfr through the period with only sct-bkn mid and high clouds expected. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ008>011-020>023-034>036. && $$ SHORT TERM...63 LONG TERM...Gargan AVIATION...63