AFOS product AFDCYS
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Product Timestamp: 2013-11-02 21:00 UTC

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FXUS65 KCYS 022144 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
300 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) 
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013

TONIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT 
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE GREAT BASIN. DECENT LOW 
LEVEL MIXING WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WINDS TO KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 
LOCALLY WARMER JUST LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ALONG INTERSTATE 25 
FROM WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE...WITH TYPICALLY COOLER LOCALES ALONG THE 
NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE. WINDS WILL 
INCREASE IN THE ARLINGTON AREA BASED ON PROGGED SURFACE TO 700 MB 
GRADIENTS THIS EVENING AND WITH A 40 TO 50 KNOT JETLET APPROACHING 
CARBON COUNTY LATE...THOUGH WITH THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WEAKENING AND THE CRAIG TO CASPER 850/700 MB GRADIENTS 
RELAXING LATE...BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW HIGH 
WIND CRITERIA AT ARLINGTON...AND WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE 
SITUATION WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE NEUTRALLY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES 
ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING...SENDING A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT AND 
BAROCLINIC BAND THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS 
LOOKS TOO MEAGER WITH ITS QPF DEPICTION...AND PREFER THE NAM AS 
THESE TYPES OF STRONG BAROCLINIC BANDS ALMOST ALWAYS PRODUCE AT 
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THUS HAVE PAINTED SCATTERED SHOWERS 
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO LARAMIE LINE WITH 
NUMEROUS OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE...SIERRA MADRE 
AND SNOWY RANGES. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON COLD 
FRONTAL TIMING...THOUGH PREFER THE NAM GUIDANCE MAXIMA.

SUNDAY NIGHT...INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO THE 
DAKOTAS...PRODUCING A MOSTLY DRY AND COLD OVERNIGHT WITH BRISK WEST 
DOWNSLOPE WINDS LIMITING THE COOLING POTENTIAL...THOUGH STILL COLD 
WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -12 CELSIUS. CYCLONICALLY 
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS FROM DOUGLAS TO CHADRON AND OROGRAPHIC SNOWS 
OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN 
IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH...AND WITH DECENT DYNAMICS AND 500-300 MB 
AND 700-500 MB QUASIGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...AND SATURATING AIRMASS...HAVE
PAINTED 30 TO 100 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM 
SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBANY AND WESTERN LARAMIE 
COUNTIES...WITH 80 TO 100 PERCENT POPS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA 
MADRE RANGES.

MONDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WESTERN 
WYOMING AND WESTERN COLORADO...INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS 
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AS OUR LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATE...
IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH 
DYNAMICS...UPSLOPE AND GOOD 500-300 MB AND 700-500 MB 
QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING TO PRODUCE 60 TO 100 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW 
AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE...WITH 80 TO 
100 PERCENT POPS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE TERRAIN FROM THE SIERRA MADRE 
AND SNOWY RANGES THROUGH THE LARAMIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE 
AND LARAMIE COUNTY AND KIMBALL. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE 
AND EXPECT WE WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY...SOUTHERN 
ALBANY COUNTY...LARAMIE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013

UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...THEN TAPER OFF OVER THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR WITH THE SNOW...SUSTAINED 10
TO 15 MPH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
-10 TO -12C WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MODERATE 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL
END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE WAVE AND ADVENT
OF DRIER STABLE AIRMASS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PER THE GFS. 700MB
TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM AROUND 0C THURSDAY TO 4C FRIDAY. WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE BOTH DAYS. THE ECMWF USHERS IN A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. FAVORED A MOSGUIDE APPROACH TO THE 
POPS WITH SMALL CHANCES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A PACIFIC FRONT 
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. DID NOT GO AS COOL AS THE ECMWF FOR HIGHS 
SATURDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013

UNLIMITED CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL STRONG
AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
DISTRICT LATE SUNDAY...USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN