National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDCYS
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDCYS
Product Timestamp: 2013-11-02 21:00 UTC
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972 FXUS65 KCYS 022144 CCA AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 300 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 TONIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE GREAT BASIN. DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WINDS TO KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LOCALLY WARMER JUST LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ALONG INTERSTATE 25 FROM WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE...WITH TYPICALLY COOLER LOCALES ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE ARLINGTON AREA BASED ON PROGGED SURFACE TO 700 MB GRADIENTS THIS EVENING AND WITH A 40 TO 50 KNOT JETLET APPROACHING CARBON COUNTY LATE...THOUGH WITH THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING AND THE CRAIG TO CASPER 850/700 MB GRADIENTS RELAXING LATE...BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA AT ARLINGTON...AND WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE SITUATION WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE NEUTRALLY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING...SENDING A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT AND BAROCLINIC BAND THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS LOOKS TOO MEAGER WITH ITS QPF DEPICTION...AND PREFER THE NAM AS THESE TYPES OF STRONG BAROCLINIC BANDS ALMOST ALWAYS PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THUS HAVE PAINTED SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO LARAMIE LINE WITH NUMEROUS OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE...SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON COLD FRONTAL TIMING...THOUGH PREFER THE NAM GUIDANCE MAXIMA. SUNDAY NIGHT...INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS...PRODUCING A MOSTLY DRY AND COLD OVERNIGHT WITH BRISK WEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS LIMITING THE COOLING POTENTIAL...THOUGH STILL COLD WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -12 CELSIUS. CYCLONICALLY INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS FROM DOUGLAS TO CHADRON AND OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH...AND WITH DECENT DYNAMICS AND 500-300 MB AND 700-500 MB QUASIGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...AND SATURATING AIRMASS...HAVE PAINTED 30 TO 100 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBANY AND WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTIES...WITH 80 TO 100 PERCENT POPS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. MONDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN COLORADO...INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AS OUR LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATE... IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH DYNAMICS...UPSLOPE AND GOOD 500-300 MB AND 700-500 MB QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING TO PRODUCE 60 TO 100 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE...WITH 80 TO 100 PERCENT POPS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE TERRAIN FROM THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES THROUGH THE LARAMIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY AND KIMBALL. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND EXPECT WE WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY...SOUTHERN ALBANY COUNTY...LARAMIE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...THEN TAPER OFF OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR WITH THE SNOW...SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 MPH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES -10 TO -12C WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MODERATE 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE WAVE AND ADVENT OF DRIER STABLE AIRMASS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PER THE GFS. 700MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM AROUND 0C THURSDAY TO 4C FRIDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BOTH DAYS. THE ECMWF USHERS IN A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. FAVORED A MOSGUIDE APPROACH TO THE POPS WITH SMALL CHANCES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. DID NOT GO AS COOL AS THE ECMWF FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 UNLIMITED CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT LATE SUNDAY...USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RUBIN LONG TERM...JAMSKI AVIATION...JAMSKI FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN