291 
FXUS65 KBYZ 011501
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 
901 AM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013

.UPDATE...

INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL...BUT SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. MADE
A VERY MINOR UPDATE TO EXTEND PERIOD OF PRECIP IN THE EAST AND IN
THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS REGION THROUGH NOON. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

THE EXIT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PRODUCED SOME LIGHTNING IN
EASTERN MT DURING THE NIGHT WILL HERALD THE DEVELOPMENT OF 500-HPA
RIDGING AND CONTINUED MILD WEATHER TODAY AND SAT.

TODAY...WE HAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHEASTERN MT UNTIL 15 UTC
IN RESPECT TO EARLY-MORNING RADAR TRENDS...THOUGH GUIDANCE DOESN/T
PROVIDE MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANY ACTIVITY BEYOND 12 UTC. THE MAIN NEWS
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...BUT THIS GO AROUND WE
EXPECT THE HIGHEST SPEEDS TO BE IN SOUTHEASTERN MT WHERE THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE STRONGEST BEHIND THE EARLY-DAY SHORT WAVE. MIXING ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS 35-40 KT WINDS SHOULD WORK DOWN TO THE
SURFACE IN PLACES LIKE BAKER AND EKALAKA...LIKELY BEFORE 18 UTC AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS NOT DECOUPLED MUCH NOCTURNALLY. MIXING WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F AGAIN IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITH HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH A
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...LESS WIND...AND THUS A BETTER
ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SAT...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE WARMING WITH 850-HPA TEMPERATURES
IN THE +7 TO +11 C RANGE BY AFTERNOON PER THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...MIXING WILL BE HELD IN CHECK A BIT UNDER THAT
MID-LEVEL WARMING AND RESULTANT INVERSION. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TOO...SO WHILE HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO
THE 50S F ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE LACK OF ANY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SURPASS THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS /UNLIKE OTHER RECENT DAYS/. BY SAT NIGHT...WE HAVE
SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST AGAIN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MT AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND HEIGHTS START FALLING AHEAD OF A 500-HPA
TROUGH. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

SUNDAY WEAK TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA BECOMING A SPLITTING
FEATURE ON MONDAY WITH FIRST PART OF ENERGY GOING THROUGH NORTHERN
MONTANA AND SECOND PIECE DRIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. DEFINITELY
COOLER PATTERN AND SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BUT PATTERN
DOES NOT LOOK TO CONTAIN STRONG FORCING. TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
ON SUNDAY COOLING INTO THE 30S ON MONDAY LOOKS GOOD WITH SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BECOMING LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. 

TUESDAY TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH SOME DRYING OF
THE AIRMASS CAUSING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DIRTY RIDGING ARRIVING THURSDAY. DOES
NOT LOOK TO FAVOR PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY INDICATED BY BOTH MODELS BUT MAIN
LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF MONTANA KEEPING AREA
UNDER FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN. BORSUM 
&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THEN
DECREASE THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE EAST...FROM KBHK
TO EKALAKA...WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 031/056 035/044 027/035 024/039 027/043 030/044
    1/B 00/B    22/W    22/J    21/B    22/W    11/B
LVM 053 031/058 032/038 021/032 021/037 024/042 026/042
    1/N 11/N    32/W    42/J    21/B    22/W    12/W
HDN 056 029/058 033/046 028/037 025/042 027/044 030/045
    1/B 00/B    22/W    22/J    21/B    12/W    11/B
MLS 055 030/057 032/049 027/038 025/042 026/044 029/043
    1/N 00/B    12/W    22/J    11/B    12/W    11/B
4BQ 053 029/059 031/048 027/037 025/041 026/044 030/044
    1/N 00/U    12/W    33/J    11/B    12/W    11/B
BHK 049 027/055 029/047 025/035 022/039 023/042 027/040
    2/W 00/U    11/B    22/J    11/B    12/W    11/B
SHR 052 027/058 031/044 024/033 022/039 023/044 029/044
    2/W 00/U    12/W    33/J    22/J    12/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS