AFOS product AFDTFX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTFX
Product Timestamp: 2013-10-24 21:10 UTC

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FXUS65 KTFX 242110
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
310 PM MDT Thu Oct 24 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday night...A dry northwest flow aloft is 
expected over the forecast area through Saturday evening. Cloudiness 
will increase near the Canadian border after midnight but am not 
expecting any precipitation. This cloudiness is associated with the 
weather system that will be affecting the area late in the weekend 
and early next week. A very weak front will move south over the area 
Friday morning and early afternoon. It will mainly bring a shift in 
light winds from the southwest to the north. High temperatures will 
still continue above normal the next two days. Blank

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER WILL CHANGE ABRUPTLY ACROSS THE 
AREA ON SUNDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA 
AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR, 
MOISTURE, AND LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO NORTH 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD ON 
SUNDAY BUT WILL FALL RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL 
MONTANA AS A FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL DEVELOP 
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW BY LATE SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO 
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. THE HEAVIEST 
SNOW APPEARS TO FALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE 
IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE STORM AND HOW 
LONG THE SNOW WILL LINGER, HOWEVER, ALL MODELS ARE PRODUCING STRONG 
DYNAMICS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA. WITH INCREASED 
CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOWFALL HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW 
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 35 MPH DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT OVER MUCH OF 
THE AREA WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THIS 
WILL LEAD TO AREA OF BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS 
NEAR IN THE HWY 89 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. LANGLIEB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
VFR conditions will continue over north central/central/southwest 
Montana through at least 12Z Friday under a dry northwesterly flow 
aloft. A light southerly winds will persist over the plains of north 
central/central Montana until a weak cold front moves south through 
the area after 00Z, shifting winds there more westerly, then 
northerly after 12Z Friday.  Coulston/Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  60  38  63 /   0   0   0   0 
CTB  37  58  34  63 /   0   0   0   0 
HLN  36  62  35  62 /   0   0   0   0 
BZN  31  59  30  60 /   0   0   0   0 
WEY  20  55  20  53 /   0   0   0   0 
DLN  32  62  32  62 /   0   0   0   0 
HVR  36  59  30  61 /   0   0   0   0 
LWT  36  58  31  61 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH from Sunday afternoon through late Monday 
night Beaverhead...Blaine...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and 
Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern 
Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Madison...Meagher...Northern Rocky 
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


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