775 
FXUS64 KTSA 171128
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ISOLATED IFR FOG/THIN STRATUS LAYER 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING
PRIMARILY NEAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES KFYV KXNA...
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...

SHOULD BE A NEAR PERFECT FALL DAY TODAY ACROSS GREEN COUNTRY AND
THE OZARKS. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. THE PV MAX
THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS YESTERDAY EVENING WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE REGION. 

AS MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY'S DISCUSSION...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN (WEST COAST RIDGE/CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH) WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME...THE FIRST OF
WHICH IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA THIS MORNING. AS THE
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE PARENT CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...INCREASING MID
LVL COLD FRONTOGENETIC AND QG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. I HAVE SEEN MANY WAVES TAKE THIS
TRAJECTORY BEFORE...THERE WILL BE ONE OR MORE FRONTAL BANDS OF PRECIP
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM...MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE SYSTEM WILL BE "BRINGING ITS OWN BAGGAGE"
SO TO SPEAK...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LVL MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME RAIN. THIS WILL NOT BE A GULLY WASHER HOWEVER. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PRODUCE A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN THE HOURLY
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS FALLING DUE TO WET BULB
COOLING AND COLD ADVECTION. FORCING QUICKLY SHUTS OFF FRIDAY
EVENING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...BECAUSE SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
EVENTUALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING MAY REQUIRE
A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PUSHING A FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR WILL BE ARRIVING LATER ON NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE 2 MAIN EXTENDED RANGE MODELS. THIS FRONT COULD
BRING THE COOLEST AIR WE'VE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  42  59  38 /   0  10  70  20 
FSM   70  43  70  46 /   0  10  50  30 
MLC   70  40  67  41 /   0  10  40  20 
BVO   70  37  55  33 /   0  10  70  20 
FYV   64  37  65  36 /   0  10  70  70 
BYV   64  40  63  39 /   0  10  70  70 
MKO   69  40  65  39 /   0  10  60  20 
MIO   68  39  58  36 /   0  10  70  50 
F10   70  41  63  39 /   0  10  50  20 
HHW   70  44  68  46 /   0  10  20  20 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21