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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIND Product Timestamp: 2013-10-01 22:31 UTC
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003 FXUS63 KIND 012232 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 631 PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP STAGNANT WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOWS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO TAKE HOLD OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING UNTIL AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THEN AND BELOW NORMAL THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013 PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THINK THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STAYED NEAR GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM AND GFS ARE FASTER IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA ON ISENTROPIC LIFT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE INITIALIZATION OF QPF WITH BOTH WAS OVERZEALOUS WITH BOTH THE NORTHWARD LIMIT OF PRECIP AS WELL AS THE AREAL EXTENT SO WENT SLOWER THAN EITHER AND KEPT THE MORNING DRY. BY AFTERNOON BROUGHT IN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST CLOSEST TO THE FORCING AND OVERSPREAD LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER. THE BEST FORCING AND GULF FETCH WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY SO WENT LIKELY THEN WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE SHEAR DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE TO BE AN ISSUE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE WAVE MOVES OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SO KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS THERE. WHILE FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE DRY WITH THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF THE PATTERN AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE CAN/T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF STORMS DEVELOPING SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING THROUGH THE DAY. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF STRATUS IN THE MORNING THAT COULD HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY SUPPRESSING WARMING. WENT WITH COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS THURSDAY EXPECTING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT NIGHT WENT WITH WARMER GUIDANCE LOWS TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013 SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER WITH BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST ALLBLEND SOLUTION IS STILL TRENDING TOWARD LIKELY POPS (AT LEAST ACROSS THE SE) AFTER SUN 00Z...WHICH MEANS ITS FAVORING A MORE NOCTURNAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LESS INSTABILITY. THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT DO NOT SEE ANY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL QUICKLY END SUNDAY MORNING...AND MUCH DRIER COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020000Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 631 PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013 SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS FOG/LOW CLOUD FORMATION TONIGHT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT GRADIENT. COULD BEGIN TO SEE IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS EARLY AS 020500Z. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOUD DECK 040-050 AFTER 020600Z...WHICH IF IT DEVELOPS...MAY RETARD FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. FOR THAT REASON...WILL NOT GO BELOW IFR ON THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE NEAR OR AT SATURATION TOWARDS SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN LOW CEILINGS AROUND 005 AGL BY THAT TIME. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 021200Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....SMF AVIATION...JAS VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS