526 
FXUS63 KFGF 290430
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME FOG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. WITH RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING FOG SEEMS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT BR DEVELOPMENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

CLEARING CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA AND HAVE LOWERED CLOUD COVER
GRIDS REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ALSO HAVE PULLED ANY REMAINING
POPS WITH PCPN HAVING EXITED THE FA. WINDS CONTINUE FROM 5 TO 10
KTS AND WHILE T/TD DEPRESSIONS CLOSING MESOSCALE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

DECREASING CLOUDS AND ENDING OF PCPN PROGRESSIVE AS UPPER WAVE
LIFTS INTO CANADA. BASED ON METARS AND KMVX-88D TRENDS HAVE
TRIMMED POPS ACROSS NE FA. PCPN SHOULD CLEAR REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHERN FA BY MID EVENING. A FEW BANDS OF UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SO SKIES WILL NOT BE TOTALLY CLEAR UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS POINT BUT MAY BE SOMETHING TO
CONSIDER IF WINDS STAY DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST AND RAIN WILL
END THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE SKY TO CLEAR BY MORNING...BUT WINDS
WILL NOT TOTALLY BE CALM. AIRMASS IS LIKELY COOL ENOUGH FOR MIN
TEMPS UPPER 30S/LOW 40S...BUT SHOULD NOT BOTTOM OUT WITH WEAK
MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONAL/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY SETS UP FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AS SYSTEMS TRACK
THROUGH CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...WITH A WARMER
AIRMASS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY. 

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

MONDAY-TUESDAY...ZONAL/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH
SHORTWAVES TRACKING MAINLY ACROSS CANADA. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY CLIP
THE NORTHERN FA MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET
STREAK...THUS 20% POPS FOR ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. THE OTHER
CHALLENGE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AS MODELS ARE INDICATING
POSSIBLE MIXING TO OVER 800MB WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS LAYER. MODELS VARY WITH 925MB-850MB WIND SPEEDS...BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE AROUND 35-40 KNOTS (WHICH MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA).
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...FOR TUESDAY EVENING MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO ONTARIO. RESULTING
DRYING...DOWNWARD TRANSPORT...FORECAST WELL MIXED LAYER COULD MAKE
FOR A BREEZY WEST FLOW DURING THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS SHOW 35KT-
45KT AT 850 AND WELL MIXED LAYER THROUGH 06Z...DECREASING RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL THROUGH MUCH OF 
WEDNESDAY...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND RELAXED SURFACE GRADIENT EARLY 
MAKE FOR A WARM AND CALM EARLY OCTOBER DAY. HOWEVER THINGS CHANGE 
FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF BEGIN 
BREAKING OUT PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH AND WEST VALLEY AFT 12Z WED 
WHILE GEM/DGEX A TAD SLOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS OVER FAR 
SOUTHWEST CWA IN ZONE OF WAA AND NEAR MAX CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY.

BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z THURSDAY GFS AND ECMWF SURGE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY 
NORTH...AS DEPICTED IN SHOWALTER AND PWAT FIELDS...APPROACHING THE 
TRI STATES BORDER. HAVE SPREAD POPS EAST ACCORDING TO BLENDS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET...UNSEASONALLY MOIST 
AIRMASS...700MB WAA...EVEN SOME MLCAPES ALL IMPINGING ON IMPRESSIVE 
BAROCLINIC ZONE SET THE STAGE FOR MORE -RASH POSSIBLY MIXED WITH 
TSRA. EVEN THIS FAR OUT...AT LEAST ATTM...MODELS AGREE SURFACE LOW 
IN PRIME POSITION TO SPREAD DECENT RAINS OVER SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF 
THE CWFA PERHAPS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DESPITE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF WAVE THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION SUPPORTS A 
FAIRLY RAPID RETURN TO ABOVE MEDIAN TEMPERATURES AS RIDGE REBOUNDS. 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ENDS WITH A SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY START TO 
NEXT WEEKEND. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

ADDED SOME FOG TO THE BJI TAF WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST ALONG
WITH CLEARING AND TIGHT T/TD DEPRESSION. REMAINDER OF FA SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT FOG BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...EWENS/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER