939 
FXUS63 KTOP 282313
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
613 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

Tonight through Sunday...Subsidence is quickly filling in behind
the main upper trough lifting northeast into Manitoba. The line of
showers and embedded thunder is slowly progressing east and
southeast out of the forecast area this afternoon. Dry surface air
quickly mixing west to east will translate to clearing skies by
this evening. Surface high pressure builds into the area with a
chilly night ahead. Good radiational cooling underneath the
Pacific airmass combined with light/variable winds will drop low
temperatures down into the 40s over much of the area. Patchy fog
developing during the early morning hours is a possibility for
portions of the area. Crossover temps and forecast lows similar in
the middle 40s, may see areas of patchy ground fog especially in
low lying areas near creeks or rivers.

On Sunday, high pressure slides east with weak southerly winds 
returning as a sfc trough develops over eastern Colorado. Overall
a sunny and pleasant afternoon with highs in the middle 70s and
dewpoint temps in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

Early week Monday through Wednesday brings a slow climb from highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s by mid week. GFS generates a bit of
precip Wednesday afternoon with an incoming weak shortwave but see
little moisture to work with this far west.

Still considerable uncertainty for the Thursday through Saturday
forecast as models struggle with the speed and strength of the
upper pattern. EC went from a closed low over the four corners at 0z
Friday to an open wave over the Dakotas on the latest run. GFS has
an open wave over Wyoming with about 8 of the ensemble members
still holding on to the slower western solution. Have kept slight
chance pops for Thursday with chance pops on Friday and diminishing
through Saturday west to east across our area. Can see how several
of these solutions are plausible with too many factors to grab
onto any one at this time. Have kept warmer temperatures for
Thursday, with cool down behind potential passing wave Friday and
Saturday.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected for much of the 
period. The only exception is with KTOP where there is the potential 
for some patchy fog to develop early Sunday morning that could 
result in vis dropping down to MVFR conditions for a couple of 
hours. Otherwise, advancing surface high pressure will keep skies 
mostly clear with light northwesterly winds tonight backing to the 
south by late Sunday morning. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke