839 
FXUS63 KILX 271741
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1241 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1048 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2013
High pressure ridge axis to the east...resulting in
south/southeasterly winds for the CWA. Mostly sunny skies with a
few wisps of cirrus dominate the state this morning. Forecast on
track and no major updates anticipated. Will adjust hourly temps
for a quicker diurnal warm up. Quiet weather continues for today.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2013
VFR throughout the forecast in advance of approaching front
tomorrow. Scattered cirrus today...but cu field remaining just
west of ILX terminals.  South/southeasterly winds...dropping off
after sunset and picking back up in the morning as the pressure
gradient continues to increase. Winds a few knots higher tomorrow
and more southerly through the day. Sct cu spreading from west to
east and sct cirrus. Gusts likely to pick up midday just beyond
the TAF pd.

HJS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 250 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2013

Illinois remains on the periphery of high pressure in the eastern
Great Lakes region early this morning, keeping skies clear. Dry
air continues to filter in from the northeast, with dew points in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. 2 AM surface map showing low pressure
centered over eastern Colorado, with a frontal boundary extending
northwest into northern Minnesota. The deep upper trough over the
western U.S. will boot this front eastward, and the rain
associated with its passage this weekend constitutes the main
forecast challenge for this package.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Another sunny and warm day on tap today as narrow upper ridge axis
drifts overhead. Meanwhile, the trough should weaken some and pick
up speed later today. Have increased rain chances on Saturday
afternoon to near 60% west of the Illinois River, although this
would mainly be starting around mid afternoon, and went with
categorical PoPs Saturday night most areas. This will be a fairly
narrow band of rain that moves through, and most areas are
probably only looking at about a 4 to 6 hour duration at best.
Better instability parameters will be to the southwest in
Missouri, but enough MUCAPE will exist in our area for some
isolated thunderstorms.

The front should be through the area by early Sunday morning. May
see a few showers linger into mid morning in the far southeast,
but rapid clearing will be the general trend in the wake of the
front Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will still be a
degree or two above normal behind the front on Sunday.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Broad east-west upper ridge will blanket the southern U.S. during
the period, gradually building northward into the Midwest by the
middle of the week. This will result in mainly dry weather and 
temperatures rising back into the 80s for highs. Latest long
range models dig another upper trough over the western states by
Thursday, which would not reach us until next weekend. The ECMWF
paints some very light precipitation in our area by Thursday in a
general southerly flow, but this is still up for debate and will
only go with 20% rain chances at this point.

Geelhart


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$