154 
FXUS63 KUNR 261730
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1130 AM MDT THU SEP 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT THU SEP 26 2013

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES. NOSE OF JET STREAK THAT BROUGHT WEDNESDAY'S CONVECTION
NOW PUSHING THROUGH ND. AT THE SURFACE...CDFNT WORKING THROUGH THE
WRK DAKOTAS/WRN NEB.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE CWFA AND BRING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CDFNT WILL CONTINUE ITS EWD PUSH
THROUGH THE CWFA...WITH WIDE RANGING HIGH TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST.
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCD WITH UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE WRN
ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN TONIGHT
AS BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS PUSHES THROUGH OUR WRN ZONES. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE THERMAL PROFILES. NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
COLDEST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND LEADS TO A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
NERN WY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE SREF IS JUST A TAD
WARMER...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. WILL GO
WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND AN INCH OR TWO
ACCUMULATION. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO EVALUATE.

FRIDAY...UPPER TROF AXIS WORKS THROUGH MT/WY WITH WDSPRD PCPN
CONTINUING ESPECIALLY ACRS THE WRN ZONES...WITH ANY SNOW IN THE WRN
ZONES SHOULD CHANGING BACK OVER TO RAIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE
CHILLY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE BLKHLS REMAINING IN THE 30S.
PCPN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF AXIS
WORKS INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. 

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT THU SEP 26 2013

TROF PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE STARTS TO 
BUILD IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER...WHICH WILL ALSO BRING A WARMING 
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS BRING ANOTHER TROF TOWARDS THE 
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH 
THIS SHOULD PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...WILL 
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH WILL COOL TEMPS A BIT 
TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU SEP 26 2013

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER NERN WY AND PARTS OF NWRN
SD/BLKHLS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SHRA WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER NERN WY INTO WRN
SD...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHSN LATE TONIGHT OVER NERN WY INTO THE
BLKHLS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER
NERN WY INTO THE BLKHLS...WHILE OVER THE SD PLAINS...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR VIS/CIGS TOWARDS FAR
WRN SD TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...15