911 
FXUS63 KIWX 240812
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
412 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY 
PROVIDING ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MID LEVEL 
LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BUT LOWER 
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND DYNAMICS WEAK. RESULT SHOULD ONLY BE AN 
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY 
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE 
LOOKING AT SATELLITE THIS MORNING AND LOW SHEARING AND FILLING AS IT 
MOVES EAST. STAYED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY PERCENTAGES FOR SKY COVER. 
LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND 
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.  

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

COMPACT BUT STRONG WAVE MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO WORK 
EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WHILE SOME 
LOCATIONS ACROSS NEBRASKA ARE REPORTING BARELY MEASURABLE RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS...THE SAME WON'T BE SEEN HERE WITH LITTLE FANFARE EXPECTED 
COURTESY OF A WEAKENING TREND AND DRY AIR MASS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE 
TRAPPED NORTH OF THE LOW...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF SLOW 
INCREASE IN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES IN 
RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. 

FORECAST TURMOIL CONTINUES INTO MAINLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE 
WEEKEND AS SAID TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE AREA. GFS COMING 
INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT NOW WITH PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF ECMWF WITH A 
SLOWER ARRIVAL TO WHAT NOW LOOKS TO BE A WEAKENING FRONT. MSTR WILL 
ATTEMPT TO STREAM AHEAD OF THE FRONT COURTESY OF THE SLOWER 
ARRIVAL...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT 
DEFINITION AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS NE INTO THE NORTHERN 
GREAT LAKES. THIS IS REFLECTED IN QPF FIELDS AS A DECREASING TREND 
IS SHOWN DURING SUN AFTN/EVE...A DIURNALLY FAVORABLE TIME FRAME. 
HAVE RETAINED POPS ON SUNDAY IN MID RANGE FOR PERSISTENCE. TO 
FURTHER POTENTIALLY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST...THE 00Z RUN OF ECMWF 
AND GEM TAKE THE ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH 
THE REGION WEDNESDAY OFF THE EAST COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND 
CLOSE OFF (TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS??)WITH A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS 
THE CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST AND THEN ABSORB IT INTO THE WEEKEND 
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WITH 
NO HINTS OF A SIMILAR SITUATION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THEN THE 
COLD FRONT WOULD BE POTENTIALLY DELAYED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY. 

REGARDLESS OF WHAT UNFOLDS ABOVE...RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
WILL BE IN STORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS ONCE AGAIN DIVERGE ON 
HANDLING OF RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. 
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

VFR EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND EASTERLY
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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