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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLMK Product Timestamp: 2013-09-22 10:47 UTC
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526 FXUS63 KLMK 221047 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 647 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2013 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2013 The sky remains clear this morning across the entire forecast area with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s at 6 am EDT. So far, local webcams and ASOS/AWOS sites have not shown signs of patchy fog over southern/eastern counties of central Kentucky. Also, 11-3.9 micron satellite channel shows that low clouds and areas of fog are mainly confined to southeast Kentucky (JKL forecast area). Patchy fog could still occur over our far eastern/southeastern counties for next hour or so, but that will be about it. Otherwise, forecast on track with plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures today. .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)... Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2013 Currently, a clear sky covers a large portion of the nation's midsection and Ohio Valley along and east of a large 500 mb ridge over the central U.S. Visibility is good early this morning over south-central Indiana and central Kentucky, although a few ASOS/AWOS sites are reporting areas of dense fog over parts of eastern Kentucky at this time. Kentucky Mesonet observations over parts of east-central and especially eastern parts of south-central Kentucky are reporting 100 pct RH with a calm wind and clear sky, so patchy fog may occur or develop especially in valleys and along rivers. Will continue mention of patchy fog early this morning, which will dissipate as temperatures begin to warm an hour or so after sunrise. An elongated ridge of high pressure at the surface will dominate the short term forecast period across our area. Other than some flat diurnal clouds this afternoon, the sky will be sunny today, clear tonight, and sunny again on Monday. Winds will be north to northeast up to 10 mph this afternoon and subside to light tonight. High temperatures this afternoon will only be around 70 or the lower 70s in most areas, or about 6-8 degrees below normal. Lows tonight should dip into the mid and upper 40s, and could reach the lower 40s in sheltered valleys. Temperatures Monday will start a slow warming trend as the surface high pressure begins to slowly retreat to the east. Expect Monday's highs in the lower and mid 70s, perhaps some upper 70s over south-central Kentucky. .LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2013 Most of the coming week looks somewhat progressive, but all-in-all dominated by ridging and generally dry. One more night of below-normal temps on Monday night, and with ideal radiational cooling conditions the min temp forecast slightly undercuts the lowest guidance. Most of the area will be in the lower to mid 50s, but the typical cold spots could dip well into the 40s. Upper-level disturbance Tuesday night/Wednesday looks a bit more interesting than previously advertised, as the GFS splits the vort center into two impulses, with the southern vort crossing the Ohio Valley Tuesday night. However, this system will still be fairly moisture-starved, so will only carry slight chances across south-central Kentucky, and even that (along with low QPF) is probably a bit generous. Upper ridge over the Deep South amplifies late in the week, allowing temps to trend above normal. Still not jumping on extended GFS MOS guidance in the mid/upper 80s for highs given that temps have largely underachieved throughout the warm season, but if we stay dry it is possible. Next front arrives sometime next weekend, with the GFS and ECMWF holding off the real precip chances until at least Saturday night, which is just beyond the realm of this forecast package. Will carry a slight chance on Saturday, mainly west of I-65, but given the strength of the ridge that may yet be a little too fast. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 635 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2013 A clear sky and good visibility prevail at SDF, LEX, and BWG at this time. So far, patchy fog has not materialized at BWG, although it can't be ruled out for next hour or so. Otherwise, ridge of high pressure will keep the sky clear and conditions VFR through the forecast period except for a few/sct flat diurnal clouds around 4 kft this afternoon. A north to northeast breeze up to 10 mph will occur today. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........TWF Short Term.....TWF Long Term......RAS Aviation.......TWF