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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMLB Product Timestamp: 2013-09-16 07:23 UTC
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685 FXUS62 KMLB 160724 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 323 AM EDT MON SEP 16 2013 .DISCUSSION... TODAY...250 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN GULF WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SE KEEPING SRN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.0 RANGE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER E CENTRAL WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. MID LYR STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WEST OF THE KISSIMMEE RIVER THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL WILL ALSO LIKELY SET UP DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PREFERRED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S COAST TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES WITH AN EAST SWELL. TONIGHT...LOW LVL ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT 20 PCT CHANCE NRN COASTAL AREAS TO 30 PCT S CSTL WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LINGER. LOWS IN THE 70S. TUE-THU...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AT 40-60 PERCENT BEFORE A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. HOW MUCH DRIER DIFFERS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND A FAST MOVING AND DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING WELL INLAND BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY EVENING...THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUT OFF THE POSSIBILITY OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. FRI-MON...ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENING AND MOVING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY AS TO THE DEGREE OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS AND STEERING FLOW...BUT BOTH DO SHOW ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT FRI AND SAT WITH MUCH WEAKER STEERING. BY SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL GET PICKED UP BY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST AND LIFTED OUT TO THE NE ACROSS CUBA/SOUTH FL/BAHAMAS IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS...IT APPEARS MODELS ARE GOING TOWARDS A WETTER PERIOD SUN-TUES AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO REFLECT THIS. && .AVIATION...EXPECT HIGHER COVERAGE OF LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF KMLB-KMCO-KLEE LINE. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED VCSH/VCTS IN THE TERMINALS. ISOLD SHRA PSBL ALONG THE COAST FROM KMLB-KSUA TONIGHT WITH VCSH EXPECTED. && .MARINE... EAST WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT TODAY INCREASING TO 3-4 FT OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. TUES-FRI...TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AS SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OUT OF GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK. MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 15KTS EXPECTED TUES-THURS...WITH OCCASIONAL 15-20KTS POSSIBLE ON TUES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 10-15KTS ON FRI AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WEAKENS. THE LENGTHENING FETCH AND INCREASING WINDS WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 4-5 FT BY TUES AFTN...AND UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE WED THROUGH FRI. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...WILL LIKELY NEED A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT (THE FIRST ONE IN A FEW WEEKS) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 75 89 76 / 40 20 40 20 MCO 92 74 91 73 / 50 20 40 20 MLB 89 77 89 77 / 50 30 50 30 VRB 88 75 90 76 / 60 30 50 30 LEE 91 74 91 74 / 40 20 40 20 SFB 91 75 91 74 / 40 20 40 20 ORL 91 75 91 75 / 50 20 40 20 FPR 88 76 89 75 / 60 30 60 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER LONG TERM....MOSES