818 
FXUS63 KGID 111145
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
645 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVE
AROUND  A STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL 
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE CWA SET UP BETWEEN BROAD HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS...LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE
DESERT  SW...AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE DAKOTAS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT A SHARP
ONE...BUT IT IS PRESENT ROUGHLY NEAR THE STATE LINE...BRINGING
LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS TO THE CWA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOCUSED ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND NEAR THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. WHILE
OVERALL COVERAGE HAS WANED OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE EAST.

THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...SHORT TERM/HIRES MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD 
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CONTINUED DECREASE IN THE ONGOING 
ACTIVITY...PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF A 
BREAK AT SOME POINT THIS MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR 
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SEE HOW THAT IS GOING TO PAN 
OUT. OTHERWISE...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEVER GO COMPLETELY
AWAY  THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
AGAIN LOOKING TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OR 
SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT AN UPPER 
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SWINGING 
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING SOME CHANGE.  THIS DISTURBANCE 
WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LIFT LATER TODAY...THOUGH THE BRUNT OF IT
WILL  STAY WELL NEAST OF THE CWA...WITH PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ZONE OF
INCREASED MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN A CONTINUED WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED...BUT DO HAVE INCREASING POPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...IT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO START SHIFTING THAT SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH. THE
HIGHER POPS START OUT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO DO THE BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIP AND POPS. ACROSS FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...POPS ARE LOW...BUT ITS NOT OUT OF QUESTION THAT THEY STAY
DRY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODEST
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS LOW. SO WHILE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY END UP ON THE STRONG SIDE...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECTING ANOTHER DOWNWARD SHIFT 
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT 
OVERLY HIGH WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND SKY  
COVER EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWER 80S IN THE
NW...TO NEAR 90 IN THE SW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIODS ARE STILL SHAPING UP TO BE COOLER...OR AT
LEAST  SEASONAL...AND INTERMITTENTLY WET. THURSDAY WILL SEE MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS FM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHILE TO THE WEST AN UPPER LOW MEANDERS IN THE SW CONUS.
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO
KANSAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY...ADVECTING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION CHCS DECREASE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
BUFFER POPS ALONG OUR S/SW ZONES AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG
THE FRONT AND TO THE WEST IN UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY...THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SW CONUS LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL 
ROCKIES AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS INDICATED ON THE 310K SFC
INCREASES  ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN/WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY. IN INCREASING LIFT...PCPN WILL BEGIN TO
EXPAND EASTWARD...ALBEIT SLOWLY AS THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE TO EAST
WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PCPN ACROSS SC NEB/NC KS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW/MOISTURE RETURNS AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...AND
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE WAVE LIFTS OUT EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN SYSTEM PHASES WITH TROUGH TRANSLATING SE FM
MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PCPN
ACTIVITY FOR A TIME SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A WARMUP WITH
TEMPS...CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SO...FOLLOWING WARM FROPA. SFC
BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT ENHANCED AS TROUGH CROSSES THE PLAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...AND CHCS FOR
PCPN ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME DECENT RAIN AMOUNTS.

THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY AND PCPN CHCS WILL 
BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS NEB...BUT LINGER INTO KS ALONG THE 
BOUNDARY. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXTENDED MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE  IN HANDLING OF NEXT TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...SO DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM EXTENDED INIT. OF
INTEREST IS THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT SUPPORT
FROM GFS WITH THIS...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2013

CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD CONTINUE TO LIE WITH THE STALLED
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. SEEING ANOTHER
BATCH OF MAINLY SHOWERS SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND INSERTED A VCSH MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS. EXPECTING A
LULL IN THE ACTION DURING AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECIDED TO KEEP ANY MENTION AS VC FOR
NOW...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF
THE TERMINAL. AS FAR AS WINDS...THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
STATIONARY...BUT LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THE FRONT GETS A BETTER
PUSH SOUTH...AND MORE NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO