077 
FXUS65 KCYS 102055
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
255 PM MDT TUE SEP 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT TUE SEP 10 2013 

THE WET AND COOL PERIOD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST. BY 00Z FRIDAY...THE FEATURE WILL BE OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA OR FAR WEST CENTRAL UTAH. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN
THE PLUME NARROW AND MOVES NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE BULK OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH
AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLOWLY DECREASE BUT REMAIN AT NEAR INCH
EVEN ON THURSDAY OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS STAYING HIGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SOME FOR
THURSDAY. MODELS MOVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. 

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WERE SPREADING BACK INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING. BY THIS EVENING...THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA AND WILL REMAIN SO 
AND BECOME MORE STRATIFORM AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. IN FACE...LATER
TONIGHT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
AND FOG OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
MORE CONVECTIVE OVER THE CWA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MODELS
DIFFER FOT THURSDAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF PAINTING MUCH MORE QPF
OVER THE CWA THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS
OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE CWA. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING COULD SEE MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND STRATIFORM LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE.  

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE CWA DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. 

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT TUE SEP 10 2013 

RATHER WET PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
WEAKENS SLOWLY WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST...FINALLY EJECTING EAST OF
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA IN
THE MEANTIME AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP OVER THE CWA ATOP LOW LEVEL
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. HOPEFULLY SOME DECENT AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR BY THE TIME IT SHOULD BE OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK...HELPING
THE RATHER DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD DUE TO THE RAIN AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
GENERALLY WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. DRIER AND WARMER
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND A SHORT RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE SEP 10 2013

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA 
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS 
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR 
CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 
THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY 
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT TUE SEP 10 2013 

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES UP AND FUELS IN MANY AREAS WET.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEILAND
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND

211 
FXUS65 KCYS 102058
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
255 PM MDT TUE SEP 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT TUE SEP 10 2013 

THE WET AND COOL PERIOD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST. BY 00Z FRIDAY...THE FEATURE WILL BE OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA OR FAR WEST CENTRAL UTAH. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN
THE PLUME NARROW AND MOVES NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE BULK OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH
AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLOWLY DECREASE BUT REMAIN AT NEAR INCH
EVEN ON THURSDAY OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS STAYING HIGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SOME FOR
THURSDAY. MODELS MOVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. 

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WERE SPREADING BACK INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING. BY THIS EVENING...THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA AND WILL REMAIN SO 
AND BECOME MORE STRATIFORM AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. IN FACT...LATER
TONIGHT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
AND FOG OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
MORE CONVECTIVE OVER THE CWA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MODELS
DIFFER FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF PAINTING MUCH MORE QPF
OVER THE CWA THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS
OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE CWA. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING COULD SEE MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND STRATIFORM LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE.  

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE CWA DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. 

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT TUE SEP 10 2013 

RATHER WET PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
WEAKENS SLOWLY WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST...FINALLY EJECTING EAST OF
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA IN
THE MEANTIME AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP OVER THE CWA ATOP LOW LEVEL
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. HOPEFULLY SOME DECENT AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR BY THE TIME IT SHOULD BE OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK...HELPING
THE RATHER DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD DUE TO THE RAIN AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
GENERALLY WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. DRIER AND WARMER
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND A SHORT RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE SEP 10 2013

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA 
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS 
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR 
CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 
THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY 
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT TUE SEP 10 2013 

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES UP AND FUELS IN MANY AREAS WET.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEILAND
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND