764 
AXUS73 KMPX 060425
DGTMPX
MNZ044-048>051-055-057>059-066-068-WIZ023>028-061030-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1125 PM CDT THU SEP 5 2013


...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS RETURN TO A PORTION OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
 
...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...

...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT OVER A SMALL SECTION OF EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WEST 
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...


SYNOPSIS...

DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST MONTH 
ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE BULK
OF THE RAINFALL WHICH DID OCCUR DURING THE PAST WEEK HAS FALLEN OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...WHERE ON AVERAGE...A TENTH
OF AN INCH...TO NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FELL. ELSEWHERE OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...TRACE AMOUNTS TO NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WERE RECORDED. IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...RUSK COUNTY RECEIVED
BETWEEN ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER ONE INCH OF MOISTURE DURING
THE PAST WEEK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...RAINFALL
RATES VARIED BETWEEN A TRACE TO NEAR ONE HALF OF AN INCH. 

THIRTY DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE HEAVIES OVER RUSK COUNTY AND
FAR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...WHERE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES
OF RAINFALL WERE RECORDED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRECIPITATION MAINLY VARIED BETWEEN A 
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO NEAR ONE INCH...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR
TWO INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. THIS AMOUNT OF 
RAINFALL MONTHLY RAINFALL REPRESENTED GENERALLY ANYWHERE FROM ONLY 
10 PERCENT TO NEAR 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH GREATEST PERCENTAGES  
OVER FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF RUSK COUNTY. 


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

LOCAL AREA AFFECTED.

...MINNESOTA...

SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE INITIATED OVER A PORTION OF 
CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...BLOMKEST TO
HUTCHINSON TO BUFFALO...AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAUK CENTRE TO 
MILACA. THE MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITION AREA WAS INDICATED
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA
...WITH ONLY VERY SMALL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND FAR 
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AFFECTED BY ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS.

...WISCONSIN...

SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE CROPPED UP OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE...FROM PRAIRIE
FARM...TO AUGUSTA TO HATFIELD...AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RICHMOND 
TO RED WING. ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE 
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF RUSK COUNTY...WITH MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT 
CONDITIONS PREVALENT ELSEWHERE. 


SOIL CONDITIONS.

SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF OF MINNESOTA HAS DEGRADED NOTICEABLY
DURING THE PAST MONTH.  AS OF SEPTEMBER 1ST...TOPSOIL MOISTURE 
SUPPLIES ACROSS THE STATE WERE RATED 24 PERCENT VERY SHORT...FORTY
TWO PERCENT SHORT...34 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND ZERO PERCENT SURPLUS. 
SUBSOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES ALSO DECREASED TO EIGHTEEN PERCENT VERY 
SHORT...43 PERCENT SHORT...THIRTY NINE PERCENT ADEQUATE AND ZERO
PERCENT SURPLUS.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAVE ALSO 
DECREASED NOTICEABLY DURING THE PAST MONTH.  AS OF JUNE 1ST 
...TOPSOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WERE ONE PERCENT SURPLUS...14 PERCENT 
ADEQUATE...FORTY NINE PERCENT SHORT...AND 36 PERCENT VERY SHORT. 
SUBSOIL MOISTURE WAS THIRTY THREE PERCENT VERY SHORT...53 PERCENT 
SHORT...14 PERCENT ADEQUATE AND ZERO PERCENT SURPLUS. 


RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS.

AS OF SEPTEMBER 5TH...RIVER FLOWS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF 
MINNESOTA RANGED BETWEEN 25% TO 75% OF NORMAL. THERE WERE SEVERAL 
ISOLATED LOCATIONS HOWEVER...THAT VARIED BETWEEN TEN AND TWENTY FOUR 
PERCENT OF NORMAL. 

AS OF SEPTEMBER 5TH...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...RIVER FLOWS 
MAINLY VARIED FROM BETWEEN 10 AND 24 PERCENT OF NORMAL WEST OF A 
LINE...FROM RICE LAKE TO DURAND...WITH NORMAL CONDITIONS BETWEEN 25 
AND 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL EAST OF THIS LINE. LACK OF APPRECIABLE 
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK...COUPLED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE 
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS ...SHOULD MAINTAIN CURRENT RIVER LEVELS 
IN BOTH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.

MINNESOTA...

AS OF SEPTEMBER 5TH...THE FIRE DANGER RATING IS MODERATE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA. BURNING PERMITS ARE REQUIRED OVER THE
ENTIRE STATE. THE FIRE DANGER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE INTO AT 
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR 
LIMITED RAINFALL OVER THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. 

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON BURNING PERMITS IN MINNESOTA...VISIT THE
MINNESOTA DNR WEB SITE OR CALL 1-888-MINNDNR...OR IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO CALL 651-296-6157. IN WISCONSIN... VISIT THE
WISCONSIN DNR WEB SITE OR CALL 1-888-WIS-BURN /947-2876/.


WISCONSIN...

AS OF SEPTEMBER 5TH...THE FIRE DANGER RATING IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR POLK...BARRON AND RUSK COUNTIES IS MODERATE. THE REMAINDER OF
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS UNDER A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT TEN DAYS DUE
TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED OVER THIS REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. 

PLEASE VISIT THE WISCONSIN DNR WEB SITE FOR CURRENT BURNING 
RESTRICTIONS OR CALL THE NUMBER LISTED BELOW.  

1-888-WIS-BURN (947-2876).
 

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WILL SLOWLY TREK EAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SLOW
MOVING UPPER AND SURFACE LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS JUNCTURE TOTAL 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
A QUARTER OF AN INCH...TO NEAR ONE HALF OF AN INCH OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING ONE INCH. 

THE EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY OUTLOOK DEPICTS A FIFTY PERCENT
CHANCE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. 

LONGER RANGE FORECASTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SEPTEMBER INDICATE  
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES.

HYDROLOGICAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE U.S. MONTHLY DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEPTEMBER 30, 2013
INDICATED THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR INTENSIFY OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA...AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 

THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID FOR THE AUGUST 15TH THROUGH 
NOVEMBER 30TH, 2013 TIME PERIOD IS INDICATING CURRENT DROUGHT 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL 
WISCONSIN. 

RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW AT CURRENT LEVELS OR DEGRADE 
SLIGHTLY AS WE PROCEED INTO THE REMAINDER OF SEPTEMBER. 

ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND NEAR AVERAGE 
IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC....AND BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 
ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED INTO THE FALL ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. 


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED BY THE THIRD WEEK OF OCTOBER...OR SOONER 
IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS CHANGE NOTICEABLY.



&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://MCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/INDEX.JSP

WISCONSIN STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE...
HTTP://WWW.AOS.WISC.EDU/~SCO/
MINNESOTA CLIMATOLOGY WORKING GROUP...HTTP://CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/
DETAILED CROP INFORMATION AT USDA PUBLICATIONS WEB SITE...
HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV/PUBLICATIONS/STATE_CROP_PROGRESS_AND_
CONDITION/INDEX.ASP
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION:

NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/CPC...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA'S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER
...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES
...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA ...USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS REPORT PLEASE
CONTACT:

JIM TAGGART/TONY ZALESKI 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHANHASSEN, MN
55317 
952-361-6708 JAMES.TAGGART@NOAA.GOV

$$

AZ