National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDMFL
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDMFL
Product Timestamp: 2013-08-24 21:10 UTC
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929 FXUS62 KMFL 242110 AAA AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 510 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013 .UPDATE... THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING HOURS. SO DID A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER THE POPS TO 20 PERCENT AND REMOVED THE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. && .UPDATE...54/BNB .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013/ DISCUSSION... FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THE SLOW START FOR THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THERE WAS A SLOW START TO THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES...ESPECIALLY THE WEST COAST. BUT BOTH ARE NOW ESTABLISHED AND AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED BUT LIKELY AROUND THE 19Z TO 20Z TIME FRAME WITH GREATEST COVERAGE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST WITH THE MOST RECENT MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT INCLUDES A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO BRING THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE DEEP LAYERED BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING WESTWARD AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY INDICATE THAT PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND TWO INCHES...THUS MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH THE DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION MORE FAVORABLE ON MONDAY. MARINE... EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGIONAL SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AVIATION... CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN VCSH FORECAST THROUGH 0Z AT EAST COAST TAFS. STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT KAPF BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR NAPLES THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SWLY GULF BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 80 89 79 88 / 20 50 30 60 FORT LAUDERDALE 79 89 78 87 / 20 50 30 60 MIAMI 78 89 78 87 / 20 50 30 60 NAPLES 73 89 74 88 / 30 60 30 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...60/BD AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK