212 
FXUS61 KBGM 221750
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
150 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WILL
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRIER COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WTIH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NJ LATE
THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NE
PA MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS MOVING AWAY. MEANWHILE... THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR
STORMS LATER TODAY WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE WEST OF TORONTO WITH
LOTS OF CLEAR SKY AND DIURNAL HEATING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NY STATE.
OBSERVED 12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1800 J/KG OF CAPE
THIS AFTERNOON AND LATEST 12Z NAM IS ALSO SHOWING MORE CAPE THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS AND SHEAR. 12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWING 20-25 KTS OF LOW-LEVEL
WIND WITH WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. 0-3 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
20-25 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL NY TODAY WHICH WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY
SEVERE WX. SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA IN SEE TEXT FOR MARGINAL
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

BASED ON ALL OF THIS EXPECT SHORT LINES OF STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY MOVING TO NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS BUT A SIGNFICANT OUTBREAK IS NOT EXPECTED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. 


3 AM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY
NY. EARLY THIS MORNING. FORCING CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST WITH MOISTURE MOVG NE INTO THE AREA. BY 10
AM THIS FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
DURING THE MIDDAY WHILE WE WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO GET CLOSER.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN IN THE SOUTH SOME LIGHT FOG. IN THE SOUTHERN TIER SOME VALLEY
FOG AGAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. MOST OF
THE FOG WILL BE LIGHT AND 1 MILE OR MORE. WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF
THE WEATHER GRIDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SOME LIFT. DYNAMICS AND FORCING NOT IMPRESSIVE. SPC HAS
THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SEE TEXT FOR DAMAGING WIND. CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE LOW CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WIND IN THE
HWO. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE SHEAR. ONLY 15 IN
THE LOWEST KM AND 25 FOR LOWEST 6KM. LAPSE RATES NOT GREAT BUT
WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S
CAPE WILL APPROACH 1K. WITH LITTLE SHEAR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
FORM SHORT LINES. 

LATE TONIGHT SHOWERS MOVE OUT. LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NW SO
CLOUDS WILL HANG ON WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
DRIER AIR SLOW TO MOVE IN MIN TEMPS WILL BE A60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

DRY FAIR WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTHEAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE SOME SUN
AND NO SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS OUT OF THE NORTH SO A SHORT
FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. NO CONNECTION TO THE OTHER GREAT LAKES.
850MB TEMPS FALL TO 10C. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS TOO. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT LOWS WILL
BE IN LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOSTLY 40S SAT NGT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE... MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING EXTNDD PATTERN.
00Z GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH UL RIDGE ACRS CNTRL U.S. AS OPPOSED TO
12Z EURO. THIS KEEPS A GOOD CHUNK OF PCPN OUT OF CWA THRU TUESDAY.
EC BRINGS IN STRONG VORT MAX ON MONDAY WHILE GFS BRINGS SFC TROF
THRU AREA MON NGT. BASED ON DISCREPANCIES HV INTRODUCED LOCHC POPS
(20-30) STARTING SUN NGT AND CONTNG THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM
AS ANY LITTLE RIPPLE MVG THRU CUD RESULT IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOR NOW
HV UPDATED WITH 00Z WPC GRIDS WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CU HAS POPPED ACROSS THE REGION AND A FEW TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NY AND ALONG A LAKE ONTARIO
LAKE BOUNDARY. THE LAKE BOUNDARY LIES FROM N OF KRME TO N OF KSYR
TO KROC. SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS ARE MOVING EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE FROM W OF
KROC SSW TO KPIT. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EAST AND IS TIMED WITH A
TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO IMPACT KELM AND KSYR AFT 20Z...KBGM
AND KAVP AFT 22Z. ISOLATED STORMS ARE POPPING UP AHEAD OF THIS
LINE. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS BUT BRIEF
LOCAL IFR IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS. WINDS ARE WEST AT 10 KT.

OVERNIGHT...BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AND SOME FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED BY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
 
FRI THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR VALLEY FOG AT KELM
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNINGS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR IN SHOWERS
PSBL. 

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...BMW