733 
FXUS62 KMLB 130047
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
847 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS 
BISECTING CENTRAL FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE LOOP WAS 
SHOWING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD THE NORTH HALF OF 
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WEST PALM BEACH AIRPORT TERMINAL DOPPLER 
WEATHER RADAR (TDWR) WAS DETECTING CONVERGENT LINES OF SHOWERS EAST 
OF GRAND BAHAMA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS MOVING TOWARD THE 
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH IS NOT FORECAST TO 
MOVE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP CONVERGENT SHOWERS THROUGH THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

THE EVENING UPDATE WILL LIKELY LOWER WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR AS 
OBSERVED LAST NIGHT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

PREVIOUS ZONE DISCUSSION
TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES OUT AND WEAKENS OVER THE STATE 
AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW 
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA 
DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT DROPPING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. 
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR 
TOMORROW...WITH A SLOWER INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE AND A FEW STORMS 
POSSIBLY TRACKING BACK FROM LAKE INTO VOLUSIA COUNTY LATE IN THE 
DAY. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH THE BEST 
COVERAGE ACROSS LAKE COUNTY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S INLAND 
AND AROUND 90 AT THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WED-THURS...A BREAK IN THE DRY STABLE PATTERN AL OCCUR AT MIDWEEK AS 
OVERHEAD HIGH PRESS WEAKENS FURTHER AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE 
MS VALLEY EXERTS SOME INFLUENCE SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL 
PENINSULA AND GULF COAST. ADDITIONALLY A EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF WILL HELP MOISTEN UP SOUTHERN AREAS 
AS THE WAVE AXIS TRANSITS THE FL STRAITS INTO THE SRN GULF LATE WED 
AND INTO THU. HAVE INDICATED A STEADY INCREASE IN POPS FROM MNLY 
ISOLD WED INTO THE MORE SEASONAL SCT RANGE BY THU AFTN.

FRI-SAT...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STATIONARY WAVEFORM ASCD WITH 
SLOW MOVING ELY WAVE OVER THE GULF REGION AS WELL AS NEARLY 
STATIONARY UPR WAVE OVER THE N GULF REGION AND SUPPRESSED ATLC RIDGE 
WL LEAD TO SCT RAIN CHCS EACH DAY WITH SLY COMPONENT FLOW AND 
DIURNAL STORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM WRT SFC FEATURES HOWEVER 
ADVERTISED HIGHER MOISTURE AND SUPPRESSED RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO AT 
LEAST SEASONAL CHCS FOR PRECIP TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF AIRPORTS AT THE COAST FROM 
SEBASTIAN SOUTH ESPECIALLY  FORT PIERCE WHERE MVFR FOG AND 
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 13/08Z AND 13/11Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOYS WERE RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 10 
KNOTS AND 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF A 1 TO 2 FOOT LONG 
PERIOD EAST SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE CONVERGENT LINES OF SHOWERS 
IMPACTING THE COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION 
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT WILL SEE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
EXPANDS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CAPE
NORTHWARDS AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH INTO
TUESDAY...TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-15KT IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
A COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE AND STRENGTHENING GRADIENT ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND 2-3
FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIODS 9 SEC.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE 
STATE THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A FRONTAL TROUGH SETTLES INTO N FLORIDA. 
TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...WITH 
SOUTHERLY FLOW 10-15KTS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST NORTH 
OF THE CAPE AND SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST. SEAS 2 TO 3 
FEET...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 4 FT SEAS OVER THE OUTERMOST WATERS 
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH. WILL 
ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO OR ABOVE SEASONAL 
NORMS BY THURSDAY. 

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR AUGUST 12TH...

DAYTONA BEACH....98...2006
ORLANDO..........98...1938, 1929
MELBOURNE........98...1980
VERO BEACH.......98...2006, 1955

&&


.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX.....SHARP
FORECASTS.....WIMMER
PUBLIC DESK...BOWEN