704 
FXUS64 KTSA 110059
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
759 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ZONES UPDATED TO REFLECT NON-PRECIP THIS EVENING...
AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z.  AFTER LOOK AT 00Z WRF AND
LATEST HRRR MAY SCALE POPS BACK MORE WITH 945 PM
EVENING UPDATE.                               GW  

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013/ 

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AFTERNOON CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AFTER
06Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN WESTERN AR...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN'T
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA....EXTENDING INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
FURTHER BEHIND THE FRONT MILD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. 

IN THE SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A FEW PULSE STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN
THE STRONGER CELLS. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG STORMS LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS HAVE A LIMITED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

FOCUS TURNS TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 
HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING
THIS TIME AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR-MASS DEVELOPS. STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM INTO
A LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA. DRY/MILD CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED BY LATE NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  91  74  91 /  10  10  20  50 
FSM   74  91  74  92 /  40  30  20  40 
MLC   71  94  73  95 /  20  20  20  40 
BVO   66  90  70  90 /  10  10  20  50 
FYV   68  88  69  89 /  40  30  20  50 
BYV   68  85  70  88 /  40  30  20  50 
MKO   70  91  72  92 /  20  20  20  50 
MIO   66  90  71  88 /  10  10  20  50 
F10   70  92  73  93 /  10  10  20  40 
HHW   75  96  75  96 /  30  20  20  20 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21