750 
FXUS63 KFGF 010858
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
358 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

TEMPERATURES AND IF ANY SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT A FEW CLOUDS AND
NOT MUCH ELSE...BUT WV LOOP SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL DIG INTO MANITOBA DURING THE DAY...AND
WITH THE BEST LIFT APPROACHING DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THAT
AREA WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPS A BIT. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOW 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT
COULD BRING SOME PRECIP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM MONTANA
INTO WESTERN ND. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT EVERYTHING WILL STAY
TO OUR WEST SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. THE DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 70S. A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME PRECIP COULD DRIFT INTO THE
WESTERN CWA AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST.  

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF
WERE SIMILAR AT 84 HOURS EXCEPT FOR STRENGTH OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY. ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH HUDSON BAY LOW. BOTH MODELS
MOVE UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN ONTARIO BY WED WITH THE ECMWF
MAINTAINING THE STRONGER SOLUTION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS A
HIGHER AMPLITUDE SOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF OVER CANADA. WILL BLEND
THE TWO MODELS BUT WILL PREFER THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE SOLUTION OF
THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES ON SUN. WILL TRIM BACK POPS 
NORTH ON SUN NIGHT. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-CLOUD MAY AFFECT
KTVF AND KBJI DURING A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA.
DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. 


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG