National Weather Service Raw Text Product

375 
FXUS63 KMPX 310026
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
726 PM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE UPPER
LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY SAGS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTRODUCING
STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW. OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE EAST...WHERE SOME SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK
/ALREADY BEING OBSERVED NEAR ALEXANDRIA/ WILL TRY TO PROPAGATE
EAST. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL BETWEEN THE LOW
CLOUD DECK SLIDING EAST...AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FA...MAINLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THAT LESS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT. FORCING IS LIMITED SO IT WILL BE A
BIT OF A STRUGGLE TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
STILL...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND LI'S NEAR ZERO...KEPT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WENT AHEAD AND DELAYED THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS MODELS GENERALLY AGREED TO SLOW IT DOWN
A FEW HOURS. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...GENERALLY LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVING FORCING
AND SATURATION CONCERNS WITH THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH /EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER/. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AND SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

TIMING OF EXITING FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION
ARE THE MAIN PROBLEMS IN THE LONGER TERM. 

INITIALLY...WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH 8 PM WED...WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SECONDARY FRONT/DEVELOPMENT BEHIND MAIN FRONT
INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH
STRONG WINDS/HAIL IF HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION CAN BE MAXIMIZED.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE MOMENT...WILL MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS FEATURE AS IT WORKS THROUGH. MOISTURE
AND FORCING LOOKS LIMITED. MINIMAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE WEAK
FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE MAIN AND MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT MONDAY AS THE LONGER TERM
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMING CLOSER INTO AGREEMENT IN OVERALL
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
CANADIAN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN COOLER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVER THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

STUBBORN MVFR OVC HAS FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF EDGING EASTWARD...
WITH WESTERN EDGE NOW THROUGH KSTC AND KRWF AT 00Z. THE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING IN WESTERN WISC AND
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET IN THE TWIN CITIES. OTHER MATTER IS INCOMING
PRECIP. BEST FORCING WILL BE TO THE NORTH SO NOW HAVE VFR CEILINGS
RATHER THAN MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE PRECIP. MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GO CATEGORICAL FOR 6-8 HOURS. FOR
THUNDER... THE MOST LIKELY AREA WILL BE SOUTHERN MN. THEN FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-18 KTS...
ESPECIALLY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

KMSP...OVERCAST DECK AROUND 2100-2600 FEET AGL SHOULD GO SCATTERED
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET/02Z/ AND DEFINITELY BY 04Z. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO
INCREASE AROUND 11-12Z WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE
RAISED VSBY TO AROUND 6SM WITH THE RAIN EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
LIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN HOUR OR SO OF 5SM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10G20KTS. 
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N AT 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...TDK