138 
FXUS63 KEAX 292044
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 340 PM  CDT MON JUL 29 2013

Convection continues to spread over the CWA this afternoon, as 
shortwave energy over NE Kansas and a secondary wave over central 
Kansas march eastward.  At the surface, frontal boundary has lifted 
northward and stalled just north of Wichita extending eastward to 
Chanute and Lebanon. A very warm and unstable airmass has developed 
south of this front with widespread convection developing at 3pm. A 
strong elevated supercell north of Wichita has shown signs of trying 
to sink southward and may become surface based as it moves eastward 
and approaching the front. Given the current projections, there is 
an outside possibility this cell could impact the extreme southern 
portions of the CWA towards 6-7pm, most likely it will dip far enough
to the south to avoid any local concern.

Otherwise, the primary concern tonight will be with the potential 
for heavy rainfall as convection builds and begins to track 
northeast into eastern Kansas and Missouri.  Outside of convection, 
rainfall rates have averages 0.10-0.30" per hour, however rainfall 
rates within several bands of convection have been much more 
efficient with 1"/HR to 2"/HR rates likely. Short term models continue to
struggle with eventual evolution of this afternoon convection, but at
this time prefer the RAP/NAM combination which will send several
waves of convection northeast with the SE-NE aligned LLJ overnight.
Total rainfall amounts will likely fall in the 1-3" range for most
locations. As the LLJ begins to veer after midnight, convection may
begin to refocus itself over the southern portions of the CWA with
the potential for training storms and increased rainfall amounts in
areas southeast of a KC to Kirksville line. The heaviest amounts may
be focused in the southern CWA, and in coordination with surrounding
WFO's will issue a flood watch for several of the flood prone rivers
and streams where initial run-off could lead to quick river rises.

Tuesday, rain will gradually come to an end from NW to SE in the 
morning as an 850 mb trough axis moves through the region. 
Temperatures will slowly recover into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Tuesday night: Dry conditions expected as high pressure temporarily 
moves into the area.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM  CDT MON JUL 29 2013

First concern will be the potential for a few convective elements to 
develop on Wednesday afternoon. In northwest flow with some mid 
level lapse rates around 7 deg K/KM and precipitable water around 
1.5 inches. This combined with some decent daytime heating, may 
result in some potential showers or even thunderstorms late 
Wednesday afternoon. Also, there will be a very weak short wave 
trough and surface front which may provide some lift as 
well. The ECMWF is faster with these features and seems reasonable 
given the strengthening upper flow. 

By Thursday morning, surface high pressure dominates and so the area 
will be dry with temperatures rising to middle 80s in the south and 
upper 80s south. By evening clouds will move into the northwest as 
the next system moves out of the central plains toward the area. 
Expect precipitation to break out over Nebraska and into Iowa late 
Thursday night and into northwest Missouri by Friday morning.

As the upper ridge axis remains across the lee side of the Rocky 
Mountain front, a short wave trough traverses upstream of this ridge 
through northern Missouri during the day on Friday. The ECMWF is 
stronger with the wave and associated precipitation through the end 
of the work week. Will keep high chances south and likely chances 
north but not really confident in the duration. There should be a 
break on Friday evening and then another wave moves through the 
northwest flow on Saturday. This second wave appears to be more 
dynamically robust and seems to have more return flow from the gulf 
to help precipitation production. By Saturday night, the ridge axis 
slides a little eastward and a decent low level jet should pull a 
warm front through from the southwest along with some convection 
overnight. Both the ECMWF and GFS show another, perhaps deeper 
shortwave trough during the day on Sunday, so will keep chances of 
precipitation through the end of this weekend.  The GFS advertises 
diminishing precipitation chances on Monday, but the ECMWF keeps 
decent chances through Monday. Will keep 30 percent or so given the 
uncertainty and continued weak waves moving through the west 
northwest flow.

Temperatures should increase a little towards the end of the week as 
the warmer area is brought in from the southwest.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

Scattered showers continue to rotate eastward across the terminals
early this afternoon. We're expected to see increased development
over portions of east central Kansas this afternoon with activity
timed into the KC terminals after 20Z. Ceilings have generally held
at VFR levels throughout the morning precipitation, however would
expect very temporary drops to MVFR levels by mid-afternoon as this
secondary area of rain develops.

Overnight, high confidence in fairly widespread and persistent shower
and thunderstorm activity impacting all the aviation points in
eastern KS and western Missouri. General restrictions in visibility
and ceilings may develop later this evening, with some guidance
supporting IFR conditions by daybreak. Low confidence on IFR ceilings
by daybreak. The end time of the rain appears focused around
daybreak, with rain lingering into the morning hours further east
into central Missouri.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR KSZ057-060.

MO...FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR MOZ043>045-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...Adolphson 
AVIATION...31