138 
FXUS64 KHGX 271249 AAA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
749 AM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO SKY CONDITION AND MAX
TEMPERATURES...GOING WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS. STILL
THINK WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
ZONES...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE LOWER 90S. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN LONGER...EVEN THAT MIGHT BE TOO HIGH. AMOUNT OF SUN
WILL ALSO PLAY INTO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. 46

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013/ 

AVIATION...
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MORE SHOWERS THOUGH LIGHTER DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE METRO TERMINALS AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
NEAR AN LHB-DKR LINE. A DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH MODELS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FOR WHERE AND WHEN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY. FOR
THIS PACKAGE AM EXPECTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER THE IAH
TRACON SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING BUT
WITH THE MOISTURE PRESENT ONLY 88-90 DEGREES NEEDED TO OVERCOME
INVERSION. CAPE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ABUNDANT BUT ENOUGH FOR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HOU SOUTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE NW AND N THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD
HOU/SGR TERMINALS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST 925-850 
FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A BKN/OVC
MVFR DECK OVERNIGHT. WILL PROBABLY GET -SHRA AROUND THE GALVESTON
BAY AREA TOWARD MORNING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS THEN BEGINS TO
CREEP BACK NORTHWARD.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR COMPOSITES SHOWING A WSW-ENE ORIENTED BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
BAND MATCHES UP WELL WITH AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
SURFACE WIND FIELD ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY THIS SURFACE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH WITH THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS REACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING. A SECOND BAND OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ALONG ACTUAL FRONT OR
WIND SHIFT LINE SEPARATING MAINLY S TO SW WINDS FROM NORTH WINDS.
THIS SECOND BAND WILL LIKELY CROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH RAPID REFRESH AND 4KM SPC WRF MESO MODELS
SHOW THIS SCENARIO. NOT LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY...WITH
30 TO 40 PCT COVERAGE WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. 

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS MAY LINGER TONIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL MARINE AREAS...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EVEN SUNDAY AS BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH. AFTER
THAT AM EXPECTING A HOT WORK WEEK WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
FROM MONDAY ON WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISING TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST...AND UPPER 90S MOST OTHER SPOTS AWAY FROM
THE WATER...FROM AT LEAST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS UPPER HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MARINE...                                                           
WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADILY BLOWING OUT OF THE 
SOUTHWEST AT 17-19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 23 KNOTS THE LAST 3-5 
HOURS. THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE RELAXING TODAY HAVE EXTENDED THE 
SCEC FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL 8 AM. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE DAYTIME HOURS AT 10 TO 15 KNOT ENHANCED BY CONVECTION DURING THE 
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS SHOULD 
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY 
SOUTHWARD AND COULD MOVE OUT INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE ALONG THE COAST COULD PEAK AT 1800-
3000J/KG AND ANY STORMS THERE COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISBY DUE 
TO THE RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE WESTERN AREAS AND EVEN MORESO ON MONDAY. 
SCEC CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT LOOK MORE 
LIKELY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ON TAP TUESDAY-
THURSDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATING THE WEATHER. 
45 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  75  98  76  98 /  20  10  10  10  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  76  96  76  96 /  30  20  10  10  10 
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  90  81  91 /  40  30  10  10  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM 
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99