220 
FXUS61 KBUF 230838
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER OHIO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT USHERING WARM, MORE HUMID AIR. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AREA 
RADARS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE TO THE SHOWERS IS NOW ALONG A JAMESTOWN 
TO ROCHESTER LINE WITH CLEARING SKIES NOW WORKING IN FOR SECTIONS OF 
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE 
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES
SHOW ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. 
NO FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED BUT SOME LIGHT STREAM RISES AND 
LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS 
MORNING. REMAINDER OF LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ENDING THROUGH THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST 
FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES TO DUE TO RAIN COOLED 
AIR AND INCREASED MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS.

THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PRECIP WILL PASS EASTWARD AND TO 
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TAKING THE SHOWERS 
WITH IT BY DAYBREAK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR IN PLACE WILL YIELD
LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN MONDAY MORNING.

AFTER DAYBREAK...OUR WEATHER STARTS OFF FAIR BUT THE THREAT OF 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT 
APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP 
IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BUT WITH LITTLE SHEAR AM NOT 
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK WILL FEATURE GENERALLY QUIET AND 
MILD WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN 
THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE 
BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AS CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR 
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. AS 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO 
THE +6 TO +8 RANGE EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. WITH THE COOL AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE LAKES 
ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT LAKE-EFFECT CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP 
SOUTH OF THE LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING 
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND FLOW BECOMES LIGHT. 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH 
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH 40S LIKELY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY 
THANKS TO COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND 
SLACKENING WINDS. AFTER THAT LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF 
THE WEEK ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND AS HIGH 
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS BACK UP 
ACROSS THE REGION. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING 
BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTH AHEAD OF 
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ON A POTENT UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE WESTERN 
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS SHORTWAVE INTO A FULL-FLEDGED UPPER LOW 
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS THE QUEBEC 
BORDER EXPECT COLD AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO PUSH A COLD 
FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT AT 
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER ARRIVES SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO MONDAY AS 
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW SHIFTING EAST OF 
KBUF/KIAG THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES WORKING IN ON THE 
BACKSIDE. MAINLY VFR CIGS PRESENT BUT INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE 
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING 
BRIEFLY LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR. 

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATER THIS MORNING AS ANY FOG BURNS OFF. A 
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS 
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00-06Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONT. 

OUTLOOK... 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPTICK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT 
FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THIS 
AFTERNOON. WAVES MAY APPROACH 3-4 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST 
WINDS BUILDING WAVES ON SOUTHERN LAKE SHORES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN 
SETTLES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN 
A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF 
THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT 
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH