National Weather Service Raw Text Product

075 
FXUS63 KGLD 230549
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1147 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2013

17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN ELONGATED PV
ANOMALY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST CWA...WITH AREA OF MORNING
CONVECTION GRADUALLY DECREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND
OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL.

OVERNIGHT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS SHIFTED AXIS OF 60+ TDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN THIS
AREA...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
THIS AREA WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NEAR TERM
MODELS NOT REALLY INITIATING IN THIS AREA THOUGH SO CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED POPS. FURTHER SOUTH...BETTER
SUPPORT FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE AND RESULTING CONVERGENT
AREA. NOT SEEING A LOT OF EVIDENCE IN THE WIND FIELDS THOUGH SO
THINK ONLY HAVING A SHORT WINDOW OF CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH IS
WARRANTED ATTM. 

ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS CINH
INCREASES RAPIDLY AND PV ANOMALY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHOULD
BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES
CLEARING OUT. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN IN THE EAST...AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED THAT DEWPOINTS WILL POOL ALONG CONFLUENT ZONE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH POTENTIALLY GOOD COOLING COULD SEE A SMALL AREA
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. LOTS OF NEGATIVES TO THIS OCCURRING THOUGH AS
CURRENT TDS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE ONCE MIXING RAMPED UP...BUT THINK
IT WARRANTS A MENTION IN FORECAST.  

ON WEDNESDAY...LARGE AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH OPERATIONAL
MODELS REGARDING HOW FAST COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA. NAM BY
FAR THE FASTEST...BRINGING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AND A VERY
STABLE PROFILE TO THE AREA. GIVEN LARGE SCALE PATTERN...AM
HESITANT TO BUY INTO A RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT AND WHILE
COOLING FORECAST APPEARS WARRANTED CONFIDENCE IN NAM SOLUTION TOO
LOW TO WAY HEAVILY AT THIS POINT. WILL BE A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...BUT GIVEN ALL THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF FRONT WILL KEEP ANY POPS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2013

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAINED CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH IT DOES TEND TO FLATTEN
OUT AND WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND PROVIDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOCAL
AREA. THE BEST LOOKING SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA...WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AND
SHOULD BRING FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL 09-10Z WHEN THE 
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS AND FOG EXISTS...ESP AT KMCK. A 
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL 
NEBRASKA AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHILE THESE 
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK LATER TONIGHT... 
ORGANIZED OUTFLOW FROM THAT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINALS 
AROUND 13-15Z WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT 
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. 

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DLF