214 
FXUS63 KICT 211635
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

UPDATED AGAIN TO CUT POPS AND TO START TO DECREASE
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK.

WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL HOLDING TIGHT WEST OF I-135...FEEL CONFIDENT
IN CUTTING BACK HIGHS. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND TOOK OUT PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALSO CUT THEM BACK BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TONIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE ARE CUT BACK MORE WITH THE PACKAGE
ISSUANCE. THERE JUST ISN'T MUCH TO FOCUS CONVECTION ON TODAY WITH
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STARTING TO WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL KS. IN
ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE GOING TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS
CONVECTION.

LAWSON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

RAN OUT WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE TO DECREASE POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS. MEANWHILE LOW CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RAIN AREA AND WITH THE LOW
CIGS HOLDING FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THERE IS
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH ACROSS NW/NORTH CENTRAL KS THAT
IS THE RESULT OF COLLAPSING STORMS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS DONE FOR THE DAY. 

WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE DATA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE ALSO DECREASE OVERNIGHT POP WITH ADDITIONAL
UPDATES. 

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

TODAY-TONIGHT:
MODELS FAIRING A BIT WORST THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH BAD COMBO OF
HRRR/RUC AND ECMWF ALL USED IN THE SHORT RANGE. CURRENTLY THINKING
PRECIPITATION WEST OF I-35 WILL WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE...BUT PRECIPITATION EAST OF I-35 WILL LIKELY FESTER
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING GIVEN DECENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...LOTS OF DIFFERING MODEL OPTIONS. BEST GUESS IS THAT
700MB BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG I-70 WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE TOO
MUCH...WITH DECENT HEATING WEST OF I-35 AND WORKED OVER AIRMASS
EAST OF I-35. GIVEN ROUGHLY ABOUT THE SAME AIRMASS IN THE
WEST...SHOULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAP IS
ERODED AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASE INTO THE EVENING...WITH
OVERALL PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
STORMS MAY BE AIDED THE ADVECTION OF RICHER MOISTURE UPSLOPE.
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF HEATING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY.

MON-TUE:
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF BOUNDARIES DURING THIS PERIOD...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION DURING
THE MORNING ON TUE ALONG THE NE BORDER OF FORECAST AREA IN
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE LESS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN
FLOW TUE NIGHT...WITH GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUE
NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

AGAIN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 0000 UTC RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF WITH
OVERALL PATTERN. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT IS AN
INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES ON THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES DOWN NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MCS WILL
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES TUMBLED SUBSTANTIALLY ON FRI AS EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION SEVERELY LIMIT INSOLATION.
THESE TEMPERATURES WERE MODERATED SOME BY BLEND WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL EVEN MORE WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-16Z. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN AREA TAFS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

MWM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    90  74  98  75 /  50  40  10  30 
HUTCHINSON      89  72  99  74 /  40  40  10  30 
NEWTON          89  71  97  74 /  50  40  10  30 
ELDORADO        88  72  97  75 /  60  40  10  30 
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  74  98  76 /  50  40  10  30 
RUSSELL         89  70  99  72 /  20  40  10  30 
GREAT BEND      89  69 100  71 /  20  40  10  30 
SALINA          89  72  99  74 /  30  40  10  30 
MCPHERSON       89  71  98  73 /  40  40  10  30 
COFFEYVILLE     88  73  98  76 /  90  40  10  30 
CHANUTE         88  72  96  75 /  60  40  20  30 
IOLA            88  72  95  74 /  60  40  20  30 
PARSONS-KPPF    88  72  97  75 /  80  40  20  30 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$