478 
FXUS63 KICT 170813
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NM WITH ANOTHER PIECE
OF ENERGY COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER RIDGE IS PLANTED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) 
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
START TO BUILD WEST. WHILE THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...FEEL THERE
SHOULD STILL BE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...FEEL MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHERE THEY WERE ON
TUE WITH A FEW LOCATIONS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. 

MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THU AS SOME LEE
TROUGHING STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPS CONTINUING TO WARM CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE
JULY. THESE WARMING MID TEMPS WILL ALSO ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) 
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO FRI AND INTO QUEBEC BY SAT. THIS WILL
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DO FEEL THAT BY THE
TIME IT MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTH...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. SO WHILE SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG IT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. THE 00Z ECMWF DID MAKE A CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN
AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN BRINGING SOME OF THE
STRONGER NW FLOW FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS WOULD ALLOW A FEW WEAK
UPPER IMPULSES TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. IN
ADDITION...THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM
BECOMING TOO EXTREME.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013

ALL 5 TERMINALS SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR STATUS FOR MOST OF THE 06Z TAF
EDITION. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE FROM ~11-14Z WHEN SOME SCT MVFR BR
MAY DEVELOP OVER SC & SE KS. WILL REINSTATE 5SM BR AT THE KCNU...
KICT & KHUT TERMINALS TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE. SOAKED GROUNDS COUPLED
WITH RAPID WARM UP TO ONCE AGAIN POP ~5,000FT CUMULUS 15Z-18Z AS SLY
WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 13KTS/15MPH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  71  93  73 /  20  20  10   0 
HUTCHINSON      91  70  93  72 /  20  20  10   0 
NEWTON          90  70  93  72 /  20  20  10   0 
ELDORADO        91  71  93  71 /  20  20  10   0 
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  93  72 /  20  20  10   0 
RUSSELL         91  68  94  71 /  10  10  10  10 
GREAT BEND      91  68  93  71 /  20  20  10  10 
SALINA          92  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10 
MCPHERSON       91  70  93  72 /  20  20  10  10 
COFFEYVILLE     93  71  94  72 /  20  20  10  10 
CHANUTE         92  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10 
IOLA            92  71  93  73 /  20  20  10  10 
PARSONS-KPPF    93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$