871 
FXUS64 KMEG 162348
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
648 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013/

NO SURPRISES IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. A DEEP...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ALTHOUGH AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES 
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HOT AS THEY CAN BE IN MID
JULY...BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE LOW 90S TOMORROW...AND IN THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THE SAME TIME BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER
THE AREA...SO DESPITE A WEAKENING HIGH...THICKNESSES AND THE
RESULTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER AS WE TRANSITION BACK INTO A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY BY FRIDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...A MORE TYPICAL JULY PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT TRAILING A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...BRING US A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINFALL...AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...SO WILL BANK ON A COUPLE OF DAYS OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN IN ITS WAKE RESULTING IN A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

30/SIRMON

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT CU WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET AND REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE AT KMKL AROUND DAYBREAK DUE TO 5SM BR. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AFTER SUNSET AND NOT INCREASE AS MUCH
WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

SWC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$