770 
FXUS63 KMPX 141052
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
552 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LOW CONTINUE 
RETROGRADING WEST SOUTH OF THE AREA.  SHEARED VORTICITY ACROSS 
EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI AND SOME WEAK H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THIS 
REGION.  THIS WEAKENS DURING THE MORNING...BUT VARIOUS HIRES 
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING PERIOD.  
WILL HOLD ONTO THIS THREAT FOR NOW.  BETTER OVERALL COVERAGE IN 
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INTO WEST CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING AND LINGER 
MUCH OF THE DAY PER MODEL TRENDS.  RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF  UPPER 
JET EVENTUALLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THAT 
MAY FOCUS ACTIVITY BETTER TONIGHT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON 
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON OVERALL CLOUDS COVERAGE.  SOME INDICATIONS OF 
THINNING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA.  READINGS 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED TO THE THICKER CLOUDS TO THE 
NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN RAIN THREAT 
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE NORTH.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. 

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE LARGE RIDGE MIGRATING FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BACK TOWARD THE ROCKIES BY LATE THIS WEEK.
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SMALL CHANCES OF
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL MN
AND WRN WI WHERE SUBTLE DISTURBANCES RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE ROCKIES BY LATE WEEK
WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR WEAK TROUGHINESS TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL
DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. 925 MB TEMPS
RISE INTO THE MID 20S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY UPPER 20S
BY THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY TOP 90 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE. DEW POINTS
NEAR 70 WILL MAINTAIN HEAT INDICES IN THE 95 TO 101 RANGE DAILY.
LOWS WILL NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH AND COULD STAY IN THE 75 TO 80
DEGREE RANGE IN THE TWIN CITIES METRO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED HEAT HEADLINES AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND COOLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

CONVECTION FILLING IN TO THE NORTHWEST. SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY KAXN
THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
AND WILL MENTION SHRA AFTER 06Z MON AT KAXN AS WELL. KSTC/KRWF ON
THE EDGE OF DEVELOPMENT WITH KSTC TOO CLOSE TO CALL. MENTIONED A
TEMPO THUNDER PERIOD IN THE MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN VFR DURING THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 

KMSP...

SOME ACCAS AROUND EARLY THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KT. 
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KT.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE