AFOS product AFDLUB
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB
Product Timestamp: 2013-07-13 09:14 UTC

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FXUS64 KLUB 130914
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
414 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER KANSAS IS SET TO EDGE SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THIS WEAKENING IS VITAL AS IT WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CONTINUE ITS
WESTWARD TREK LARGELY UNIMPEDED AS A BURGEONING UPPER HIGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. THE EFFECTS OF THIS LOW
WILL NOT BE FELT LOCALLY UNTIL AFTER THIS SHORT TERM WINDOW...SO  
ONE FINAL DAY OF VERY HOT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE CARDS...ALTHOUGH IF
IT IS ANY COMFORT THE LL THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND SET TO DELIVER HIGHS IN EXCESS OF 105 TO PARTS OF NWRN KANSAS 
AND FAR SWRN NEBRASKA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK WITH BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW INTO
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS A BIT SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT BUT NOT BY MUCH. SHOULD START TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SURFACE
MOISTURE VALUES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BACKS TO THE EAST AND HELP PULL IN HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT REALLY START TO
PICK UP UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE TO BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF ON WEDNESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AS WELL AS LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE
PANHANDLES WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES AT TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT ARE MUCH LESS THAN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY HAD...
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND
THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO TAPER OFF MID-WEEK.
AFTER WEDNESDAY...WE SEEM TO BE STUCK BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF THE
CLOSED LOW TURNING INTO AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND A WEAKENED AND ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT STAYS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ALONG THE EAST COAST. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        97  68  92  61  71 /   0   0  20  50  50 
TULIA         97  69  89  60  73 /   0   0  20  50  50 
PLAINVIEW     98  70  90  61  72 /   0   0  20  50  50 
LEVELLAND     97  68  94  63  72 /   0   0  20  50  50 
LUBBOCK       99  72  94  63  73 /   0   0  20  50  50 
DENVER CITY   95  68  94  66  74 /   0   0  10  50  50 
BROWNFIELD    97  68  94  65  74 /   0   0  20  50  50 
CHILDRESS    105  74  85  65  78 /   0   0  20  70  70 
SPUR          99  73  91  65  77 /   0   0  20  60  60 
ASPERMONT    103  75  89  66  77 /   0   0  20  80  80 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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