569 
FXUS63 KTOP 120444
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

WEAKENING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE 
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SHOWERS CONTINUE IN 
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO 
NORTHWEST KANSAS. SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE 
CONVECTIVE CHANCES SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SO 
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH FROM 
EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS 
THE CWA TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH RETURN 
FLOW STARTING LATER TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND ACROSS 
NORTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 
MID 60S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TO AROUND 70 IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON FRIDAY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM 
825 MB IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 
OVER 20 MPH WILL BE LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 
90S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 100 
DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 
60S BY AFTERNOON...THUS HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES MAY 
REACH THE 101 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL RETROGRADE
WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN OK BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST ASCENT NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS AR...OK AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. I PLACED SLIGHT POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA IN CASE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH. INCREASED CLOUDS AND A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

OVER THE PAST WEEK THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE DEALING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. IT APPEARS THAT OUR AREA MAY BE AFFECTED BY THIS LOW
IN THE FORM OF PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN US
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE RETURN.
DID NOT ATTEMPT TO ADJUST ANY TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THE EXTENDED MAY BE A PERIOD OF WET OR DRY ALSO NOT
SURE WHAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE AS THE LOW PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY EAST SOUTHEAST
AND BECOME SUSTAINED OVER 12KTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING ONCE AGAIN NEAR SUNSET. 67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WOYNICK
LONG TERM...GARGAN/SANDERS
AVIATION...67