296 
FXHW60 PHFO 112011
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU JUL 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY BREEZY 
TRADE WINDS TODAY. THE TRADES WILL FOCUS SHOWERS OVER MAINLY 
WINDWARD AREAS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS DROPS SOUTH AND 
THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATER NEXT 
WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE WEST AND THE HIGH BUILDS BACK TO 
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1033 MB HIGH 1300 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU NEAR 39N151W 
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS. 
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE 
ISLANDS IN THE TRADE-WIND FLOW. THE CLOUD FIELD UPSTREAM TO THE EAST 
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS PRETTY UNIFORM...BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE USUAL DIURNAL 
CHANGES.

THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HIGH 
MOVING FARTHER NORTH AS A LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS MOVES SOUTH. WINDS 
OVER THE ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE 
LOW WILL MAKE THE CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ISLANDS MONDAY...ABOUT 850 
MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE WINDS 
WILL DROP INTO THE GENTLE TO FRESH RANGE AND THE WINDS MAY SHIFT OUT 
OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR KAUAI. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE WEST 
STARTING MONDAY AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HIGH WILL BUILD BACK 
TOWARD THE ISLANDS. THE TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME 
LOCALLY BREEZY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH NEXT 
WEEK...BUT THE WINDS MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON 
SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY AND 
STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN SEASONALLY LIGHT 
OVER MOST AREAS. THERE ARE NO WEATHER SYSTEMS IN SIGHT LIKELY TO 
MAKE A DENT IN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE STATE. BRIEF MVFR 
CONDS EXPECTED AT TIMES OVER WINDWARD AREAS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND 
-SHRA. 

AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB LIKELY TO REMAIN IN UP THROUGH 
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. 

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL HAWAIIAN 
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS. THE SCA 
WILL BE LIKELY BE SCALED BACK TONIGHT TO THE CHANNELS AND THE WINDY 
AREAS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA 
COMPLETELY BY THE WEEKEND.

SURF WILL REMAIN SMALL EXCEPT FOR ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING 
SHORES THROUGH TOMORROW. 

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE 
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND ALL CHANNELS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL REMAINING 
HAWAIIAN WATERS.

&&

$$
DONALDSON