071 
FXUS63 KOAX 090839
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
339 AM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TIMING PCPN CHANCES THE MAIN CHALLENGE THRU THE 7 DAY FCST PD. 
MODELS ADVERTISING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED 
WITH A COOL FRONT DROPPING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL 
PLAINS. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES 
APPROACHING TO 2" AND KI AROUND 45. MEANWHILE DAY TIME HEATING HELPS 
PUSH MUCAPES TO 4500 J/KG. TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...NAM/GFS SFC 
PLOTS INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY SHOULD REACH THE OMAHA 
METRO SOMETIME TWD 00Z THIS EVENING. GFSLAMP TIME-SECTION WAS 
SUPPORTING THIS AS WELL. AT ANY RATE...EXPECT SCT STORMS TO QUICKLY 
INTENSIFY ALONG LLVL THETA-E CONVG AXIS. AT THIS POINT APPEARS THAT 
AREAS EAST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORM 
DEVELOPMENT WHERE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL BE 
MOST PREVALENT. AS MENTIONED...COOLER AIR MASS THEN SETTLES IN OVER 
THE REGION WED AND USHERS IN DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE EARLY PART OF 
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  SUN THRU MON...APPEARS THAT ANOTHER COOLER 
AIR MASS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL SWEEP SWD THRU THE GREAT LAKES 
WITH THE WRN EDGE MAKING IT TO THE ERN CWA. THUS MAINTAINING SMALL 
POPS LOOKS REASONABLE. 

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL MENTION SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH THE STORMS
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE HEAT WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND A FEW
STORMS COULD RE-DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING
WITH SURFACE FRONT AND HEATING DURING THE DAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     NEZ045-052-053-067-068-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

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