334 
FXUS66 KLOX 082351 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
455 PM PDT MON JUL 8 2013

***UPDATE FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION***

.SYNOPSIS...

A BRIEF WARMING SPELL HAS STARTED WITH TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE 
YESTERDAY.  THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD 
INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN 
THE VALLEYS AND INLAND AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY MODERATE BEACH 
TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...COOLING TEMPERATURES 
TO AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...OUR EARLY WEEK WARMUP HAS BEGUN WITH MOST 
AREAS UP 4-8 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD PEAK TUESDAY 
BEFORE THE UPPER HIGH RETREATS BACK EAST FOR A FEW DAYS AND WEAK 
TROFFING SETTLES IN ALONG THE COAST. THE ONE CAVEAT FOR TUESDAY THAT 
IS CERTAINLY WORTH NOTING IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT 
MID/LATE WEEK COOLING PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS EARLY AS TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON. THE NAM HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT LAST FEW RUNS SHOWING 
AN EDDY CIRCULATION SPINNING UP TUESDAY AND COOLING LOW LVL TEMPS 
SEVERAL DEGREES BY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER SRN LA COUNTY. THIS 
MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN IN TIME TO PREVENT HIGHS FROM PEAKING AT LEAST 
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY SO FOR NOW WILL STAY THE COURSE.

HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL START MOVING IN FROM THE 
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH THROUGH 
THURSDAY. NOT SEEING MUCH MOISTURE BELOW 600 MB OR EVEN MUCH 
INSTABILITY EITHER SO TSTORM THREAT IS MINIMAL. BUT SKIES WILL BE 
OBSCURED AND IT'S POSSIBLE PARTLY CLOUDY MAY NOT SUFFICE AT TIMES. 
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, THE MARINE LYR WILL START REFORMING OFF SAN 
DIEGO COUNTY TUESDAY AND THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT 
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE WEAK TROF COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LOW 
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR NORTHWARD MARCH THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY. 

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE COOLING/WARMING CYCLE WILL SHIFT BACK TO 
WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ARIZONA HIGH AGAIN EXPANDS WEST. ALL 
THE SAME TRENDS WE ARE SEEING THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED (LOWER/LESS 
MARINE LYR, EARLIER CLEARING, WARMER TEMPS). ANOTHER TUE OR WED PEAK 
IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE START BACK TOWARDS COOLING AGAIN FOR 
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. NOT SEEING ANY OBVIOUS MONSOON 
PATTERNS SETTING UP AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ALL THE BEST 
INGREDIENTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BUT THE DOOR ISN'T COMPLETELY 
CLOSED EITHER. 

&&

.AVIATION...08/2350Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAFS 
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THRU TUE AT MOST AIRFIELDS. THERE IS A 10 
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AT KLAX AND 
KLGB. FOR KSMX...THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND 
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ABOUT 05Z-15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE 
EXPECTED AS WELL THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF 
AND KPMD WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN TUE 
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY 
THRU TUE EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS 
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 
THRU TUE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES