National Weather Service Raw Text Product

458 
FXUS63 KDDC 082023
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
HIGH PLAINS REGION, NOTED BY THE 588 DM GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT CONTOUR 
EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AT THE 
850 MB LEVEL WAS CENTERED FARTHER SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING A WEAK LEE 
TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS HOT AIRMASS WAS 
CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20'S FROM WEST 
TEXAS THROUGH KANSAS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT AT THE 500 MB 
LEVEL FROM ARIZONA THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AND WESTERN KANSAS, 
INDICATED BY SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ACROSS WESTERN 
KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAD SOARED INTO THE MID TO 
UPPER 90S, HEADING TOWARD 100 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS BY 2 PM. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID 
LEVEL CUMULUS NEAR THE AREA OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE IN WEST CENTRAL 
KANSAS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ROTATES AROUND TEMPERATURES AND 
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. INITIALLY, WE FOLLOWED THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL 
WHICH INDICATED WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON, INTO 
THE LOW 100'S ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER 
COUPLED WITH BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP THE SURFACE 
LAYER WELL ENOUGH MIXED TO MAINTAIN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 
70S. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A 
SLACKENING OF THE SURFACE WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW CENTERS OVER 
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THE COMBINATION OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES ACROSS 
WEST CENTRAL KS, AND DEW POINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN 
FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROMOTE HEAT INDICES AROUND OR ABOVE 105 
DEGREES. AS A RESULT, WE'LL POST A HEAT ADVISORY WESTWARD TO A 
DIGHTON TO MINNEOLA LINE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE SURFACE MOISTURE 
FIELD EXISTS, HOWEVER THE EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY 
SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR DRIER DEW POINTS SHOULD THEY OCCUR. 

CONVECTION CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE A CHALLENGE AS RECENT 
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS HAVE INDICATED CONFLICTING INFORMATION. 
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT (CONVERGENCE ZONE) ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE THE FAVORED ZONE FOR MOIST CONVECTION AGAIN. 
THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WOULD APPEAR SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED ALONG THE 
FRONT AS THE NAM INDICATES INCREASED DEEP BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 
KNOTS WHICH COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND GENERATE COLD 
POOLS, BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS RELATIVELY LIMITED IN 
AREAL COVERAGE, AND FOCUSED ON MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND 
GUSTS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY HOWEVER  
SUPPORTS ONLY FORECASTING PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION BELOW 50 
PERCENT. IF THE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FAVORABLY 
POSITIONED FRONT, SIGNIFICANT RELIEF TO THE AFTERNOON'S HOT 
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE AN IMMEDIATE RESULT.        


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013



TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS 
RETROGRADE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO A WEAK 
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  IN ADDITION...A 
MODEST 60 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL AID IN PUSHING 
A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS DURING THE EVENING THEN 
STALLING OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ARRIVAL OF 
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS 
TUESDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT AS MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, OVERCOMES A MODEST ELEVATED MIXED LAYER 
TO BRING THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, OVERALL SEVERE THREAT 
IS MARGINAL AS WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES NOT SUPPORT ROTATING 
UPDRAFTS ALTHOUGH INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SOME 
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60-70 MPH.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS 
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGS A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE 
WESTERN HALF OF KANSAS. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY 
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT THERMAL MIXING ENOUGH TO 
KEEP DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 100.  IN ADDITION...A 
DECENT SETUP WILL EXIST FOR AN MCS MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND 
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS 
DURING THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN QUESTION IS LOCATION OF 
THIS MCS AS SOME GUIDANCE PLACES THIS OVER FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS TO 
OKLAHOMA WHILE OTHERS MOVE THE MCS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS 
OF THE STATE. CONFIDENCE IN PICKING ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER IS 
NOT HIGH AS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE JUST AS MIXED WITH 
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.  NONETHELESS, THREAT FOR CONVECTION IS HIGH 
ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER MOST OF 
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT 
HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WILL BETTER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT 
AS DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT GOOD CELL 
ORGANIZATION ALTHOUGH STILL MORE OF A WIND THREAT THAN HAIL.  

THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS 
BACK EAST INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE FRONT MOVING QUICKLY NORTH OF 
WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW HOT CONDITIONS TO 
RETURN BY THURSDAY AS STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION SUPPORTS DEEP THERMAL 
MIXING UP TO 700 HPA WITH RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE 
DIGITS. FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY 
FLATTEN OVER KANSAS AS IT ELONGATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND 
ADJACENT CENTRAL PLAINS REGIONS, INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS 
WILL LEAVE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER A HOT AND GENERALLY 
DRY REGIME AS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS APPEAR VERY 
LIKELY EACH DAY. THERE IS SOME HINT AT A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLY 
SLIPPING INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH COOLER 
CONDITIONS, BUT THE UPPER PATTERN SIMPLY SUPPORTS A CONTINUED HOT 
AND DRY REGIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

SURFACE LEE SIDE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS LEFT SOUTHWEST 
KANSAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE 
RATES WILL ENSURE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH 
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED 
(10KFT OR HIGHER) THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE 
AREA AFTER 00 UTC AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12 Z, ALTHOUGH THE OCCURRENCE 
OF ON AFFECTING ANY GIVE TERMINAL IS VERY LOW. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75 106  72  97 /  20  40  40  20 
GCK  75 104  71  94 /  20  40  40  20 
EHA  77 102  71  95 /  20  40  40  20 
LBL  77 103  72  99 /  20  40  40  20 
HYS  77 106  72  93 /  20  40  40  20 
P28  77 107  76  99 /  20  40  40  20 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
044>046-064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL