347 
FXHW60 PHFO 070613
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
745 PM HST SAT JUL 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH 
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING TRADES THE FIRST 
HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. DAYTIME SEA BREEZES WILL RULE THE ISLANDS 
SUNDAY RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDINESS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS 
OF ALL ISLANDS. TRADES WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING MONDAY AND BECOME 
RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW WITH THE 
LIGHT WINDS BUT PICKUP SLIGHTLY AS THE TRADES BECOME STRONGER...WITH 
THE SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE 
INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN AREAS AS NIGHTFALL SETS IN. SURFACE ANALYSIS 
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY POINT TO A VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...
LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCAL LAND BREEZES TO RULE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL...AND IF ANY...WILL BE LIGHT AND 
BRIEF...AFFECTING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. 

THE THICKEST PART TO A LARGE PATCH OF CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE 
ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THIS 
PART OF THE CIRRUS FIELD CLEARS OUT A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...WE 
WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS BETWEEN THE MID 60S TO 
LOWER 70S. 

THE LIGHT WINDS ARE BEING CAUSED BY A WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH LOCATED 
600 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF OAHU THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL 
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...ALLOWING TRADES TO BECOME STRONGER AS THE 
NEW WEEK BEGINS. 

LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS THE CENTER OF A BROAD HIGH 
PRESSURE AREA WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1029 MB. THIS HIGH WILL 
BECOME STRONGER WHILE MOVING WEST TO A POSITION ALMOST DIRECTLY 
NORTH OF THE MAINLY HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TUESDAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT A 
1038 MB HIGH TUESDAY EVENING AT 41N154W. HENCE...WIDESPREAD MODERATE 
TO STRONG TRADES FOR THE ISLANDS...PERHAPS A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE 
TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS SUCH AS THE KOHALA WAIMEA AREAS OF THE BIG 
ISLAND AND HALEAKALA SUMMIT ON MAUI. THIS WINDY TRADES WILL LIKELY 
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO THE MORE NORMAL MODERATE 
TO LOCALLY STRONG RANGE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
 
THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A GOOD STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT 5 TO 7 
THOUSAND FEET. BARRING ANY ORGANIZED SHOWERS...WE ARE LOOKING AT A 
DRY TRADE PATTERN WITH THIS TYPE OF LOW INVERSION. THE SHOWERS WILL 
OCCUR MOSTLY DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AND GENERALLY SHOWER 
FREE BY MID MORNING OR NOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE BIG ISLAND IS CARRYING THE BULK OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHERE THE 
BASES ARE IN THE MVFR RANGE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BOTH WINDWARD AND 
LEEWARD. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARING OUT THOUGH AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS RULES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE ADVISORIES RIGHT NOW...AND NOT LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED MONDAY 
NIGHT OR TUESDAY FOR NOT ONLY THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND 
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND BUT TO OTHER ZONES.

SMALL ON THE SWELLS. THE BIG BOOST IN THE TRADES MAY WARRANT A HIGH 
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES AT MID WEEK.
&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LAU