275 
FXUS63 KTOP 030824
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS DUG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CONUS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING 
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. 
MODELS SHOW THIS LOW CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE 
KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER TODAY AND STALLING OUT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS 
AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY TONIGHT. AS THIS WAVE PASSES OVER THE 
AREA...COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
DEVELOP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME 
OF THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY WAS SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING AS RADAR 
SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL 
KANSAS...CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUNDINGS DO 
NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY 
BUT THE SOUNDINGS DO BECOME MORE OF AN INVERTED V PROFILE BY THIS 
AFTERNOON...SO CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY POP UP SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CREATE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. 

DESPITE THE SHIFT TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...INCREASED CLOUD 
COVER FROM THE MID LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A 
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO 
MIDDLE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW 
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S. 


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE AROUND WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN 
KANSAS ON THURSDAY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE FROM 500 TO 
NEAR 1000 J/KG EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO MOISTURE WILL 
INCREASE IN THE COLUMN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT DIURNAL 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST 
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO END BY EARLY EVENING AROUND 
8 PM. WITH WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS...BUT SOME 
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS 
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST. 

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN A 
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS MODELS SHOW BETTER LIFT WITH ENERGY AROUND 
THE LOW ACROSS MISSOURI AND IOWA. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST STARTS 
TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE 
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH 
CENTRAL KANSAS AND UPPER 90S ON MONDAY. IN NORTHEAST AND EAST 
CENTRAL KANSAS HIGHS AROUND 90 ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW STORMS TO 
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WILL MAINTAIN FROM EARLIER FORECAST. CHANCES 
FOR CONVECTION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER 
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ROUGHLY BE AROUND I-70 TUESDAY. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE MORNING. WILL PROBABLY SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z...AND HAVE
USED A VCTS GROUP FOR NOW WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH IF ONE OF
THESE STORMS MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD COULD SEE UP TO AN HOUR OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS.

BARJENBRUCH


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH