472 
FXHW60 PHFO 020114
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
315 PM HST MON JUL 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADES WILL KEEP RAINFALL FOCUSED ALONG WINDWARD TERRAIN 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER TRADES WITH PERIODS OF SEA AND LAND 
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED LEEWARD 
SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. FRESH TRADE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM EARLIER IN THE SHIFT. THE 
OVERALL REASONING REMAINS THE SAME WITH BACKED NE TRADES AND 
WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING CLOSED 
LOW NE OF HAWAII. TOTAL PW IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHALLOW REMNANT FRONTAL 
BAND THAT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT-WED. MADE MINOR NEAR 
TERM CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE LATEST SATELLITE AND 
MODEL TRENDS. 

THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING LOW WILL DEEPEN AND SLIDE WESTWARD 
REACHING LATITUDES N OF HAWAII BY FRI AFTERNOON. TRADES WILL EASE TO 
GENTLE-MODERATE SPEEDS THU-SAT IN RESPONSE. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW 
WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG 
WINDWARD TERRAIN BUT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR LEEWARD SEA/LAND BREEZES. 
SHALLOW BKN-OVC LEEWARD CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR 
EACH AFTERNOON DURING THIS TIME.

GLOBAL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NE. THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL FLATTEN QUICKLY AS IT EXITS W ALLOWING STABLE 
MODERATE-FRESH TRADE FLOW TO RESUME MON-TUE. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE THIS 
EVENING...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG WINDWARD 
FACING SLOPES. A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
OLD FRONT MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN LOW CLD AND SHRA WHEN IT ARRIVES 
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA 
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE STAYING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS WEEK. S 
SWELL WILL DROP INTO TOMORROW THEN BUILD TUE AFTERNOON AS FRESH 
SOUTHERN HEMI SWELL FILLS IN. SURF AT S FACERS WILL REACH THE 3-5 FT 
RANGE WED-FRI THEN DROP THEREAFTER. TOP FOCAL AREAS AND REEFS WILL 
PULL IN SOME LARGER SETS. SOME WINDWARD LOCATIONS ARE SHOWING SIGNS 
OF SMALL MID PERIOD E SWELL GENERATED SEVERAL DAYS AGO BY FORMER TC 
COSME. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR SO. NOT MUCH 
OF INTEREST IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH PACIFIC SOURCES THIS WEEK. THERE 
WILL BE A FRESH UPDATE TO THE SURF FORECAST AT 400 PM. CHECK IT OUT 
FOR ALL THE LATEST DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...DEJESUS
AVIATION...FOSTER