National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDICT
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDICT
Product Timestamp: 2013-07-01 11:33 UTC
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542 FXUS63 KICT 011133 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 633 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A STALLED UPPER LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US. WHILE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE AND STIFLING HEAT REMAINS OVER THE WRN/SWRN US. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP WEAK SFC RIDGING AND NORTHERLY FLOW PARKED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE WEAK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN CONTROL. WITH THIS COOL AIRMASS COULD EVEN SEE MIN TEMPS FLIRT WITH RECORD LOWS...EARLY ON TUE. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) CERTAINLY WILL BE A PLEASANT START TO JULY. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD CORE NATURE TO THIS LOW MAY MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND A EVEN A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THIS LOW BY WED. ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR AREAS OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND THE FLINT HILLS FOR THIS CHANCE. NOT ALOT OF INSTABILITY SO THINK MAINLY SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. KETCHAM .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BLOCKY PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OR END OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS BREAK DOWN OF THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE GFS LIFTING IT OUT TO THE EAST...WHILE THE ECMWF TRIES TO CUT OFF A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF KS BY SAT OR SUN...FOR AT LEAST A DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL GO WITH THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR SE KS...BUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW. KETCHAM && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24HRS FOR ALL TAF SITES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. JAKUB && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 JULY 2ND MIN TEMP RECORDS: CHANUTE 56 IN 1959 WICHITA 54 IN 1959 RUSSELL 55 IN 1968 SALINA 52 IN 1959 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 83 59 84 60 / 10 10 10 10 HUTCHINSON 83 58 84 60 / 0 0 10 10 NEWTON 82 58 83 59 / 10 10 10 10 ELDORADO 82 57 82 58 / 10 10 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 83 58 83 60 / 10 10 10 10 RUSSELL 83 56 85 59 / 0 0 10 10 GREAT BEND 83 56 84 59 / 10 0 10 10 SALINA 84 58 84 59 / 0 0 10 10 MCPHERSON 84 58 84 59 / 0 0 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 83 59 83 59 / 10 10 10 10 CHANUTE 81 57 81 59 / 10 10 10 10 IOLA 80 57 80 59 / 10 10 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 82 58 82 59 / 10 10 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$