518 
FXUS62 KCHS 250229
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY. THE TIDE IN
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR PEAKED AT 7.05 FT MLLW. 

ONLY REMNANT STRATIFORM RAIN IS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION. THERE ARE STILL OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WHICH
ARE PRODUCING SOME MAINLY CLOUD-TO-CLOUD LIGHTNING...BUT THE
HEAVIEST WEATHER IS OVER FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY AND THE FAR
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TO TAKE CURRENT SHORT
TERM RADAR TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING ALONG THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER. STILL EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST DURING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE CONTROLLED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE 
EXTENDING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING INLAND 
TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN INITIALLY WEAK AND ILL DEFINED 
PATTERN WILL ALSO GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH 
ALOFT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EACH DAY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE WEAK 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MEANDERING IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH...SUBSEQUENT MAINTENANCE OF SOME DEEP MOISTURE...AS WELL AS 
INCREASED CONVERGENCE UPSTREAM WITHIN THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH. 
LACKING ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT 
TERM PERIOD...HAVE INDICATED A RATHER TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE 
SCENARIO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE 
TO OCCUR ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE EACH 
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE SEABREEZE PUSHES 
INLAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL THEN 
RE-INITIATE OR TRANSITION OVER THE MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT...WITH AN 
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS.

CONSIDERING LIMITED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...ANY ORGANIZED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ONCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SPREADS BY THE MID
AFTERNOON EACH DAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL ANY ONE
DAY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS
TIME. 

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING...EXPECT A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD...LIKELY A RESULT OF
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND...WHILE
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE 
EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A SURFACE
FRONT LINGERS OVER OR JUST INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
PATTERN WILL YIELD GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG/STRATUS AT EITHER TERMINAL EARLY
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT...SO NO MENTION WILL
BE INCLUDED FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY STARTING OUT ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE...SIMILAR TO THE PAST
SEVERAL MORNINGS. BRIEF IMPACTS COULD OCCUR AT JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME...BUT SINCE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE OPTED
FOR NO INCLUSION OF PREVAILING OR TEMPO TSRA JUST YET. THIS WILL
BE REEVALUATED WITH LATER FORECAST CYCLES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED EACH 
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CIG POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...THE EARLY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO SYNOPTIC S/SW WINDS THIS EVENING...
AVERAGING 5-15 KT AND ACCOMPANIED BY 2-4 FEET SEAS DOMINATED BY AN
8-9 SECOND PERIOD E/SE SWELL. 

LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING COULD SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED /BRIEF
WATERSPOUTS. 

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC RIDING AND AN INLAND TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT AT TIMES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
THE RETREATING ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY
LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST