130 
FXUS62 KJAX 241839
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...REST OF THE AFTERNOON...
THE RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. YESTERDAY'S EASTERLY WAVE IS NOW WEST OF THE
AREA ALTHO A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS BACK INTO SE GA WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POPPING UP. THE RAPID REFRESH SHOWS RATHER SPARSE
CONVECTION UNTIL MID AFTERNOON THEN AS LAND AREAS HEAT AND SEA
BREEZES MOVES INLAND...SCATTERED POPS (40-50%) ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
WEST OF HWY 301. THE EAST COAST WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE SBRZ. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...ACTIVITY OVER INLAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 
SUNSET AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT AGAIN. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE (SURFACE/ALOFT) SETTLES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND
MODELS SHOW A BREAK-AWAY PIECE OF VORTICITY DRIFTING INTO SE GA.
THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION. WILL CAP POPS AT 50% ACROSS SE GA....TAPERING TO 30-40%
FOR INLAND NE FL...AND 20% OR LESS FOR THE EAST COAST SINCE THE
SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR TRAINING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLFOR AREAS WELL INLAND. MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S COAST AND LOWER
90S INLAND.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...STILL
EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA BUT SOMEWHAT LESSER COVERAGE
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN IN UPR 80S COAST AND LWR 90S INLAND...
PERHAPS A FEW MID 90S INTERIOR SE GA.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPPER-AIR PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER OUR AREA FROM GA/AL...SUPPORTS
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...AND MAINTAINING LOW POPS THRU
THE NIGHT.  HIGH TEMPS UPR 80S COAST TO LWR-MID 90S INLAND BOTH DAYS.

WEEKEND...LARGE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE 
U.S. AND BRING US A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. COVERAGE WILL
DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH GETS AND HOW CLOSE TO OUR AREA IT SETS
UP. LATEST GFS RUN HAS IT SETTING UP WELL W AND NW OF OUR AREA...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. IF LATER RUNS SHOW A
DECENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND TROUGH AXIS TOWARD FL/GA...MAY NEED
TO INCREASE POPS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT LOCALLY LOWER VICINITY 
OF SCATTERED AFTN/EVNG TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH
DURING THE WEEK...WITH SE FLOW BECOMING SOUTH MID WEEK AND SW BY
END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT...ALTHO
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND 2-3 FT
EASTERLY SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  91  71  94 /  40  50  30  30 
SSI  76  87  76  89 /  10  20  10  20 
JAX  71  90  71  92 /  10  40  20  20 
SGJ  74  87  73  89 /  10  20  10  20 
GNV  70  91  70  93 /  20  40  30  30 
OCF  72  92  71  92 /  30  40  30  30 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

TRABERT/WOLF