376 
FXUS63 KIND 220829
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
429 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES...RIDING ALONG 
THE EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE...TO AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY 
MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. 
NONE OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER 
MN AND WI. THE HRRR MAY BE THE ONLY MODEL TO PROVIDE SOME TRUTH TO 
WHAT WILL PREVAIL FOR LATER TODAY...AND THAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 
REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY SOUTH TO CENTRAL 
INDIANA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. INCREASED POP COVERAGE 
TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN TIER WHERE ANY REMNANT ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO 
REACH. 

IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES REACH CENTRAL INDIANA BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS 
JUNCTURE WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE AND WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
80S TO AROUND 90. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013

SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND THEN 
BY 06Z BE DRY. LOWS AROUND 70. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING WITH IT 
SIMILAR CHALLENGES TO THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. INTRODUCED AT LEAST A 
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE OTHER STORY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WILL BE THE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND THE 90 MARK. DID NOT STRAY
FAR FROM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013

A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL SET UP DURING THE EARLY TO 
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK RIDGING 
ALOFT AND BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. CANNOT 
RULE OUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THIS REGIME TUESDAY 
AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH CAPPING MAY BE A HINDRANCE...OTHERWISE 
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY WEEK. THINGS DO TRANSITION LATE 
WEEK WITH A MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH 
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHER POPS WILL BE 
NECESSARY HERE.

ON TEMPS...ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH DID 
BUMP HIGHS UP A DEGREE IN SOME PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL 
IMPACT OF OVERDONE PRECIP IN MODELS. MAXES/MINS WILL BE NEAR TO A 
BIT ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD POST COLD FRONT...AS 
THE ZONAL TO WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN WOULD DICTATE.   

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1213 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013

EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME BRIEF OVERNIGHT FOG 
TONIGHT AT LAF AND MORESO AT HUF WHERE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FELL 
LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THAT 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE VISIBILITY 
P6SM ESPECIALLY AT LAF. COULD SEE A FEW MORE AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY 
AFTER 16Z...BUT CHANCES TOO SMALL TO MENTION. DID GO WITH A BROKEN 
VFR CU DECK THOUGH TO STRESS CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITY. 

SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 
10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 16Z SATURDAY AND BECOME LIGHT TO 
CALM AFTER 02Z SUNDAY. 

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...MK/NIELD

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