984 
FXUS63 KICT 220805
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

LEE THERMAL LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL UNDERGO DIURNAL INTENSIFICATION 
TODAY RESULTING IN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ESPECIALLY 
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG 
MIXING SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO REACH MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY LEVELS 
MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 14...AND WILL RUN AN ADVISORY THERE 
FROM 18Z-01Z. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE GREAT BASIN OUT 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL 
ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...REACHING A
POSITION FROM NORTHWEST KS TO EASTERN NE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING. VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY PM IN NORTH CENTRAL KS. UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD INITIATE STRONG-SEVERE STORMS IN EASTERN CO/NORTHWEST
KS LATER SUN PM/EVE...WITH THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATING EASTWARD AND
POSSIBLY FORMING AN MCS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS CONVECTION COULD CLIP
SOME OF OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-70. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH OUT OF KS MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. NEARLY PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THIS 3 DAY PERIOD.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...INTENSIFYING INTO A STRONG 
UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. 
UPPER TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA 
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE HOT 
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD 
FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MAY FILTER SOUTHWARD 
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOK VERY SLIM. 

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S (KTS) WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD
EVENING. 

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  75  95  73 /  10  10  10  10 
HUTCHINSON      97  75  97  73 /  10  10  10  10 
NEWTON          96  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10 
ELDORADO        93  74  93  73 /   0   0   0  10 
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  75  94  73 /   0   0   0  10 
RUSSELL         98  75  97  71 /  10  10  20  30 
GREAT BEND      98  75  98  71 /  10  10  10  20 
SALINA          97  75  97  73 /  10  10  10  30 
MCPHERSON       97  75  97  73 /  10  10  10  20 
COFFEYVILLE     92  75  93  73 /   0   0   0   0 
CHANUTE         92  74  92  73 /   0   0   0  10 
IOLA            92  74  91  73 /   0   0   0  10 
PARSONS-KPPF    92  75  91  73 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING 
FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.

&&

$$